Subject Content Knowledge For The In Field Assessment Education Essay

In 2002, teacher abrasion rates and keeping jobs ( Ingersoll, 2002 ) compounded the issue of out-of-field instructors, increasing the strain of run intoing the demands of puting a extremely qualified instructor in every schoolroom ( NCLB, 2001 ) . In President Bush ‘s 2006 State of the Union Address he pledged to make an extra 30,000 new mathematics and scientific discipline instructors to rectify for these deficits ( Bush, 2006 ) . Interestingly, in 2009 Ingersoll concluded that the instructor deficits were no longer the taking cause of the deficiency of high quality instructors but instead it was due to permeant school staffing and direction jobs. A Teacher deficits are still a major, nevertheless ; several research surveies have found that â€Å" extremely qualified † instructor shortages has become an even greater concern ( Blank, Langesen, Laird, DeMello, 2003 ; National Academy of Sciences, 2007 ; National Center for Education Statistics, 1997 ; Ingersoll, 2002 ; Rumberger, 1987 ; U.S. Department of Education, 2009 ) . Drum sanders ( 2004 ) concluded that 57 % of in-between school pupils were taught by a instructor who had non earned adequate college credits to declare a minor country of survey in a related field ; , 48 % of in-between school physical scientific discipline pupils were taught by a instructor missing a child in a related field. More late, a survey by Schools and Trust ( 2008 ) found that teacher mis-assignments totaled 27 % of the nucleus classs in the state ‘s high-poverty schools. Mis-assignment is the assignment of a certified instructor to learn in a content country that he or she does non hol d an indorsement or major, and therefore has deficient content command. Alternatively, these instructors may be considered partly out-of field. Out-of-field assignments are still rather common. In each of the six old ages of informations aggregation, Donaldson and Johnson ( 2010 ) found that anyplace from 57 % to 74 % of math instructors, 16 % to 31 % of societal surveies instructors, and 38 % to 48 % of scientific discipline instructors lacked a major in the field they were learning. Out-of-field assignments were most prevailing in the first one or two old ages of respondents ‘ callings ( Donaldson & A ; Johnson, 2010 ) . Despite a extremely qualified position, if a instructor is mis-assigned or learning wholly out-of-field they are missing the necessary preparation and cognition needed to decently turn to the demands of the pupils. Filling the schoolroom with quality instructors remains a primary concern within the educational system. Having extremely qualified instructors with cognition and background in their content countries and strong supervising from content leaders and decision makers is critical to the success of their pupils ( Garner, 2007 ) . The National Council for Accreditation of Teacher Education has claimed that teacher quality represents â€Å" the parallel development of learning cognition that is specific to the content being taught, every bit good as general pedagogical cognition † ( Hattie, 2008 ) . This research survey examined the differences in instructor quality when instructors are outside their primary field of survey. This step of instructor quality represents a contemplation of a instructor ‘s capable content cognition ( SCK ) and pedagogical content cognition ( PCK ) . The two cognition spheres of each instructor were measured both in math ( in-field tonss ) and in scientific discipline ( out-of-field tonss ) . Hill, Rowan, and Ball ( 2005 ) found that instructors ‘ mathematical cognition was significantly related to student achievement additions. Furthermore, there are several surveies that indicate instructors that have a grade majoring in mathematics are strongly associated with higher pupil accomplishment in high school and in-between school ( Aaronson, Barrow, & A ; Sanders, 2007 ; Frome, Lasater, & A ; Cooney, 2005: Goldhaber & A ; Brewer, 2000: Monk, 1994 ; Wenglinsky, 2000, 2002 ) . It has besides been shown that teacher subject-area enfranchisement is systematically and strongly associated with high school and in-between school pupil accomplishment ( Cavalluzzo, 2004 ; Goldhaber & A ; Brewer, 2000 ) . Several research surveies exist, sing either teacher effectivity, teacher quality, or pupil accomplishment, each of which step in some signifier or another both pedagogical content cognition and capable content cognition of the instructors ( Hauk, Jackson, & A ; Noblet, 2010 ; Saderholm, A Ronau, Brown, & A ; Collins, 2010 ) . Similarly, in this survey the research worker measured the capable content cognition and the pedagogical content cognition of instructors as the finding step of instructor quality. Specifically, in-between school mathematics instructors ‘ capable content cognition and pedagogical content cognition in mathematics were compared to their capable content cognition and pedagogical content cognition in physical scientific discipline. In this survey 21 in-between school mathematics instructors were given the Diagnostic Teacher Assessment of Mathematics and Science ( DTAMS ) Instrument for both mathematics ( Algebraic Ideas Assessment ) and Science ( Physical Science Assessment ) . The DTAMS instrument has been shown to be both a valid and dependable study designed to mensurate Capable Content Knowledge and Pedagogical Content Knowledge in math and scientific discipline ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) . Both Subject Content Knowledge and Pedagogical Content Knowledge have been used to mensurate teacher effectivity and finally a step of instructor quality ( Ball, Thames, & A ; Phelps, 2008 ; Hill, Ball, & A ; Schilling ; 2008 ; Manizade, 2007 ) . Once both Subject Content Knowledge and Pedagogical Content Knowledge tonss are established they were combined to organize a step for teacher quality. This was done for both in-field tonss and out-of-field tonss. After which the instructor quality tonss for both in-field and out-of-field were straight compared to bespeak the grade to which a instructor either additions or losingss quality. This research survey addresses the inquiry: What is the difference in quality of an in-field instructor compared to an out-of-field instructor – specifically in math as the in-field and scientific discipline as the out-of-field content country? Two features that continue to come up when reexamining surveies affecting instructor effectivity are the instructors ‘ natural cognition of the capable affair and their ability to transform that cognition into an prosecuting lesson for pupils. These properties of instructor effectivity are more normally referred to as capable content cognition and pedagogical content cognition. This survey may offer a more direct comparing of a instructor ‘s ability to utilize these traits outside their primary field of survey. The results of this survey may turn out to be important to the professional development community at big. Furthermore, the consequences of this survey may congratulate an of import research undertaking, titled â€Å" Measures of Effective Teaching † ( MET ) , sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Developed by research workers at Educational Testing Service ( ETS ) and the University of Michigan, the MET is designed to mensurate non-traditional facets of cognition particular to instruction. The research worker administered both the mathematics part ( Algebraic Ideas ) and the scientific discipline part ( Physical Science ) of the DTAMS study, designed to mensurate both the pedagogical content cognition every bit good as capable content cognition, to attest in-between school mathematics instructors. The studies were so scored by the University of Louisville Center for Research in Mathematics and Science Teacher Development ( CRMSTD ) staff. The tonss from the mathematics part of the DTAMS were used as the baseline tonss and referred to as the in-field tonss. The tonss from the scientific discipline part of the DTAMS were referred to as the out-of-field tonss. The grade to which the in-field tonss differ from the out-of-field tonss indicated the expected alteration in a instructor ‘s cognition domains when learning outside her primary field of survey. One of the primary restrictions of this survey stemmed from the size of the population. The appraisal in this survey was based on self-reported responses ; nevertheless, it is expected that since the participants are professionals their responses were echt. The population size is restricted for two grounds. First, each participant was expected to finish two studies that took about one hr each. This was a clip devouring undertaking, and it was hard to happen adequate in-between school math instructors that were willing to take part. Second, each study cost the research worker 10 dollars to be evaluated by the trained scorers from The University of Louisville Center for Research in Mathematics and Science Teacher Development. It should be noted that the participants were purely voluntary and were non compensated. Using trained scorers was necessary to guarantee the cogency and dependability of the studies.Problem BackgroundIt was reported that in 2000, 23 % of public in-between school pupils and 10 % of public high school pupils received their instruction in mathematics by instructors without a major or enfranchisement in math instruction. These Numberss are somewhat greater when looking at private schools ( Seastrom, Gruber, Henke, McGrath, & A ; Cohen, 2002 ) . Donaldson and Johnson ( 2010 ) found the Numberss to be more disturbing. With six old ages of informations aggregation, Donaldson and Johnson found that anyplace from 57 % to 74 % of math instructors, 16 % to 31 % of societal surveies instructors, and 38 % to 48 % of scientific discipline instructors lacked a major in the field they were learning. With new statistical and analytical methods used by a broad scope of research workers, grounds has been mounting that teacher quality can account for a big portion of discrepancy in student trial tonss ( Boyd, Lankford, Loeb, Rockoff, & A ; Wyckoff, 2008 ; Ferguson, 1991 ; Hanushek, 1996 ; Hanushek, Kain, & A ; Rivkin, 2009 ; Rockoff, 2004 ) . Quality instructors are indispensable to the success of any school plan. The two most of import properties of a quality instructor is their capable content cognition and their pedagogical content cognition ( Even, 1993 ; Hill, Rowan, & A ; Ball, 2005 ; Ma, 1999 ; RAND, 2003 ) . Teachers who have met the demanding criterions of National Board Certification and those who have generated higher â€Å" value-added † pupil accomplishment additions are far less likely to learn economically disadvantaged and minority pupils ( Cavalluzzo, 2004 ; Goldhaber & A ; Anthony, 2004 ; Humphrey, Koppich, & A ; Hough, 2005 ; Sanders & A ; Rivers, 1996 ) . As a consequence, high-poverty schools are more likely to be beset with learning vacancies in math and particular instruction, and much more likely to staff schoolrooms with out-of-field, inexperient and less-prepared instructors. ( Ingersoll, 2002 ; Mayer, Mullens, & A ; Moore, 2002 ; Strizek, Pittsonberger, Riordan, Lyter, & A ; Orlofsky, 2006 ) . The pattern of engaging instructors to learn topics that they are non qualified for is good documented and a serious hurt to the territories, the instructors and most significantly the success of the pupils. This is particularly true in high minority and high poorness countries. The dearth in the literature occurs when trying to quantify the grade to which an out-of-field instructor differs in abilities and strengths to instructors that remain within their primary field of survey. A few more recent surveies have shown that a decently certified instructor who is learning in their specific field of survey contributes greatly to the success of their pupils. Out-of-field instructors are significantly less successful in increasing pupil accomplishment ( Board of Regents, 2008 ) . Research has besides systematically and clearly pointed out that effectual instruction is a extremely important factor impacting pupil accomplishment ( Babu & A ; Mendro, 2003 ; Hanushek, Kain, & A ; Rivkin, 2009 ) . Furthermore when it comes to effectual instruction, research has found that teacher experience and capable content cognition has systematically shown important impact on pupil accomplishment ( Gordon, Kane, & A ; Staiger, 2006 ; A Rice, 2003 ; Hanushek, Kain, & A ; Rivkin, 2009 ; Rockoff, May 2004 ) . Effective instruction implies instructors have well-developed pedagogical content cognition, yet this cognition develops over clip ( Ball, Lubienski, & A ; Mewborn, 2001 ; Grossm an, 1990 ) . A turning figure of research surveies are trying to flesh out a relationship between capable content cognition and pedagogical content cognition ( Ball, 1990 ; Ball, Hill & A ; Schilling, 2004 ; Ball, Thames, & A ; Phelps, 2008 ; Hill, Ball, & A ; Schilling, 2008 ; Ma, 1999 ; Manizade, 2007 ; Shulman, 1986 ; Thornton, 2004 ; Wilson, Shulman & A ; Richert, 1987 ) . Shin, Koehler, Mishra, Schmidt, Baran, and Thompson ( 2009 ) demonstrated thatA the degree of pedagogical content cognition of a instructor contributes significantly toward effectual instruction and pupil public presentation. Furthermore, there have been an increased figure of research surveies trying to operationalize the step of instructor ‘s pedagogical content cognition by manner of a paper pencil system or online study ( Ball, 2003 ; Kromrey & A ; Renfrow, 1991 ; Shin et al. , 2009 ) . Saderholm, A Ronau, Brown, and Collins ( 2010 ) have late contributed to the hunt for instructor quality by formalizing the Diagnostic Teacher Assessment in Mathematics and Science ( DTAMS ) mathematics appraisals for middle-school instructors. The dependability and cogency of the DTAMS appraisals were ab initio established by using adept inquiry composing squads and referees every bit good as reexamining national criterions for content.A DTAMS measures both capable content cognition and pedagogical content cognition in several math and scientific discipline subjects. These subjects are straight related to teacher quality and pupil accomplishment. There were two distinguishable ( DTAMS ) appraisals that were utilized in this survey. The in-field ( mathematics ) DTAMS Algebraic Ideas appraisal measuredA memorized cognition, conceptual apprehension, higher-order thought, and pedagogical content cognition. The out-of-field ( scientific discipline ) Physical Science appraisal measured declaratory cognition, scientific enquiry and processs, conventional cognition, pedagogical content cognition, and scientific discipline, engineering, and society cognition ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) .Purpose of the StudyThis survey was designed to mensurate the alteration in a instructor ‘s capable and pedagogical properties if they were to learn outside of her field of survey. By understanding the grade to which a instructor ‘s cognition spheres change when learning merely outside of their primary field of survey, pedagogues and decision makers would hold a more clear apprehension as to the effects an out-of-field instructor m ay hold on his or her pupils. More specifically, this survey focused in on two closely related Fieldss, mathematics and physical scientific discipline. This offers an exceeding penetration as to the alone differences in both capable content and pedagogical content cognition that an out-of-field instructor would hold in the instruction of pupils. These differences could function as a pace stick for disposal and policy shapers as they consider the issue of engaging out-of-field instructors and ultimate success or failure of their pupils and schools. It has been good established that non merely is the quality of the instructor the individual most of import schooling factor foretelling pupil results ( Ferguson 1998 ; Goldhaber 2002 ; Goldhaber, 1999 ; Hanushek, 1999 ) , but that â€Å" the quality of a instructor can do the difference of a full twelvemonth ‘s acquisition growing † ( Hanushek, 1992, p.8 ) . Furthermore, many research workers and pedagogues agree that a combination of both capable content cognition and pedagogical content cognition are the primary properties of a quality instructor ( Ball & A ; Bass, 2000 ; Ma, 1999 ; Rowland, Martyn, Barber & A ; Heal, 2000 ; Shulman 1986, 1987, 1996 ) .Research QuestionsThis research is designed to reply several inquiries. First, how much capable content cognition is gained or lost when a in-between school mathematics teacher Teachs outside his/her field in physical scientific discipline? H1: In-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will demo a lessening in capable content cognition when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. H1a: In-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will demo no important alteration in capable content cognition when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. H1b: In-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will demo an addition in capable content cognition when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. The other of import yet distinguishable cognition sphere that must be considered is the pedagogical content cognition of the instructor. This was done by replying the inquiry, how much pedagogical content cognition is gained or lost when a in-between school mathematics teacher Teachs outside his/her field in physical scientific discipline? H2: In-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will demo a lessening in pedagogical content cognition when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. H2a: In-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will demo no important alteration in pedagogical content cognition when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. H2b: In-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will demo an addition in pedagogical content cognition when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. Finally, the last set of inquiries combines the measurings for both topic and pedagogical content cognition to find an overall consequence on instructor quality. By sing both cognition domains as equal subscribers to the overall step of a teacher quality we can find the general consequence ( addition or lessening ) that in-between school mathematics instructors who teach outside of the field ( physical scientific discipline ) may see. What is the overall consequence on instructor quality when a in-between school mathematics teacher Teachs outside his/her field in physical scientific discipline? H3: The overall quality of in-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will diminish when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. H3a: The overall quality of in-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will demo no important alteration when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline. H3b: The overall quality of in-between school instructors certified to learn mathematics will increase when they teach outside of their field, physical scientific discipline.Restrictions and Boundary linesThe population used in this survey was its primary restriction. The sample of participants included 21 instructors that were certified to learn in-between school mathematics in Illinois. The research worker administered both the Algebraic Ideas Survey ( DTAMS ) and the Physical Science Survey ( DTAMS ) . Each study took approximately 60 proceedingss to finish. A committedness of two hours of the participants ‘ clip was a big petition ; this limited the figure of participants willing to react to this survey. The studies were so sent to the University of Louisville Center for Research in Mathematics and Science Teacher Development ( CRMSTD ) for analysis by the research worker of this survey. The analysis included a comparing of both capable content cognition and pedagogical con tent cognition of the instructors for both in-field ( mathematics ) and out-of-field ( physical scientific discipline ) . The consequences of this comparing addressed straight the research inquiries found in this survey. Distinct advantages and disadvantages occur that are declarative of a descriptive research design. This survey specifically targets the relationship between in-field tonss and out-of-field tonss doing a correlational analysis an appropriate foundation. A correlational analysis lent itself of course in seeking relationships between capable content cognition, pedagogical content cognition and among the related demographics. However, no affair how important the correlativity, causing can non be inferred due to possible influence of unbridled immaterial variables. Several statistical methods were implemented so as to counter the influence certain specific variables may hold on the consequences of this survey. These variables include age, experience, educational history, and socio-economic work environment. Finally, it is of import to observe that respondents were non given the chance for elucidation of study inquiries nor did they have an chance to explicate their reading of the inquiry. Misconstrued inquiries frequently times led to an inappropriate response when in fact the participant may really good hold a clear and strong apprehension of the topic or variable features being measured.Definition of FootingsIn this research survey, it is peculiarly of import to explicitly specify any cardinal footings. In the undermentioned subdivision the primary key footings are defined.Capable Content Knowledge for the Out-of-Field AssessmentDeclarative Knowledge: A This cognition is entirely based on facts and definitions. Teachers with this cognition have the accomplishments to execute rote algorithmic undertakings that are indispensable to work outing jobs. The ability to remember facts, regulations, scientific Torahs and definitions is a important constituent in instruction ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) . Scientific Inquiry and Procedures: A Scientific processs and attacks represent the cognition type that allows for the ability to acknowledge the elements of scientific enquiry such as placing inquiries for scientific enquiry, design and behavior scientific probes and experiments, use appropriate informations aggregation and analysis techniques, the ability to believe critically about the informations and to do logical decisions and accounts ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) . Conventional Knowledge: A Schematic cognition represents a more in-depth apprehension of the nature of scientific constructs, rules and related phenomenon. Teachers with this cognition can efficaciously compare and contrast assorted scientific belongingss and features and can explicate bounds and the development of current scientific cognition ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) . Science, Technology, and Society Knowledge ( STS ) : This cognition allows instructors to bridge the spread between the scientific community and its influences on society as a whole. Teachers were able to show a thorough apprehension of the function that human demands play in the development and application of scientific discipline every bit good as a historical and planetary position of how scientific finds have impacted society. It is the nature by which scientific discipline, engineering, society, and current environments interact and germinate as a individual entity ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) .Capable Content Knowledge for the In-Field AssessmentMemorized Cognition: This is most closely related to the antecedently mentioned declaratory cognition in the old appraisal. This is cognition that is based upon using the accomplishments and algorithms necessary for accurate calculation. This is non conceptual by nature nor is it a step of job work outing abilities. Teachers wit h this cognition can execute calculations affecting assorted algorithms, definitions, and a remembrance of facts ( DTAMS, 2006 ) . Conceptual Understanding: This cognition corresponds most closely to Schematic Knowledge for the scientific discipline appraisal, wherein it represents the knowing and understanding why. Teachers with this cognition have the ability to do connexions between mathematical subjects and to see the general relationship that unambiguously binds these subjects into cosmopolitan constructs ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) . Problem Solving and Reasoning: This cognition represents the tactical cognition needed to infer what is of import mathematical information in non-standard math jobs, and cognize how and why one can use different mathematical attacks to happen solutions to an array of applications ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006 ) .Pedagogical Content KnowledgePedagogical Content Knowledge: Lee Shulman coined the phrase â€Å" pedagogical content cognition † in 1985 and possibly specify it best in his ain words ( Shulman, 1987, p. 13 ) : [ Pedagogical Content Knowledge is the ability to ] elucidate capable affair in new ways, reorganize and divider it, clothe it in activities and emotions, in metaphors and exercisings, and in illustrations and presentations, so that it can be grasped by pupils. Additionally, pedagogical content cognition â€Å" represents a category of cognition that is cardinal to instructors ‘ work and that would non typically be held by non-teaching capable affair experts or by instructors who know little of that topic † ( Marks, 1990, p. 9 ) . For this survey the term Pedagogical Content Knowledge most closely reflected the following definition from the Diagnostic Teacher Assessment in Mathematics and Science: This cognition represents strategic cognition for mathematics teaching- † cognizing when, where, and how to outdo Teach mathematics † ( Brown, McGatha, & A ; Karp, 2006, p. 1 ) . Once once more these appraisals concentrated on the usage of pedagogical content cognition in the rectification of pupil misconceptions about mathematics. Teachers with this cognition can fulfill two standards: acknowledge the pupils ‘ misconceptions, and depict the most effectual ways to learn peculiar mathematical constructs utilizing the most powerful analogies, illustrations, illustrations, accounts, experiments, and presentations.Middle School TeachersFor the intents of this survey in-between school instructor is defined as any instructor certified to learn 6th, 7th, and 8th class.Significance of the StudyTeachers in h igh poorness, high minority schools are more likely to be less experient, less educated, learning on exigency licenses or releases, and learning topics for which they are non qualified ( Carroll, Reichardt & A ; Guarino, 2000 ; Darling-Hammond, 2002 ; Goe, 2002 ; Hanushek, Kain, O'Brien, & A ; Rivkin, 2005 ; Ingersoll, 2002 ; Lankford, Loeb, & A ; Wyckoff, 2002 ; Marvel, Lyter, Peltola, Strizek, & A ; Morton, 2007 ; Peske & A ; Haycock, 2006 ; Scafidi, Sjoquist, & A ; Stinebrickner, 2007 ; Useem & A ; Farly, 2004 ) . Mathematicss and scientific discipline, in peculiar, are typically targeted as Fieldss most enduring from deficits ( Grissmer & A ; Kirby, 1992, 1997 ; Liu & A ; Ramsey, 2008 ; Murnane et al. , 1991 ; National Commission on Mathematics and Science Teaching, 2000 ; Weiss & A ; Boyd, 1990 ) . In fact, legion high-profile studies from organisations including the National Academy of Sciences ( 2006 ) , the National Research Council ( 2002 ) , and the US Department of Educat ion ( 2002 ) have straight tied mathematics and scientific discipline instructor deficits to the quality of educational public presentation and, in bend, to the future wellbeing of the economic system and the security of the state. Although many in-between school decision makers may experience it necessary to use instructors in countries for which they are under-qualified, this survey may bespeak the hazards to student accomplishment based on an out-of-field policy. Research has systematically pointed to effectual instruction as the most important factor impacting pupil accomplishment ( Babu & A ; Mendro, 2003 ; Manizade, 2007 ; Rivkin, Hanushek, & A ; Kain, 2005 ) . This survey is important to foster the apprehension of the benefits and/or hazards of utilizing out-of-field instructors in a in-between school scientific discipline category. Repeating the educational demand for quality instructors, the research community including the Research and Development ( RAND ) Mathematics Study Panel of 2003 had called for increasing criterions for teacher readying plans ( RAND, 2003 ) . This survey would offer some penetration as to the direct and distinguishable difference in instructor quality when sing a arrangement of an out-of-field instructor into a schoolroom that they are non to the full prepared to learn.DecisionAdditions in pupil accomplishment are, more frequently than non, accredited to the quality of the instructor. Loopholes in the hiring patterns of quality instructors have led to an addition in out-of-field instructors in the schoolroom. In chapter 1 it was stated that research workers normally view teacher quality as a combination of both capable content cognition and pedagogical content cognition. The intent of this research was to mensurate the difference in teacher quality between in-field and out-of-field instructors. The consequences of this survey are important in that it contributes to the broader apprehension of how out-of-field instructor impact instruction. Chapter one is an overview of the research that was performed ; an debut to the background of the job, intent of the survey, research inquiries with hypotheses, definition of cardinal footings, restrictions of the survey, and the importance of the survey. In the undermentioned chapters, there is a reappraisal of the relevant research related to this survey, an account of the methods employed, informations analysis with an account of the consequences, and a treatment of how the consequences could be applied.

A Game of Thrones Chapter Fifty-two

Jon Othor,† announced Ser Jaremy Rykker, â€Å"beyond a doubt. And this one was Jafer Flowers.† He turned the corpse over with his foot, and the dead white face stared up at the overcast sky with blue, blue eyes. â€Å"They were Ben Stark's men, both of them.† My uncle's men, Jon thought numbly. He remembered how he'd pleaded to ride with them. Gods, I was such a green boy. If he had taken me, it might be me lying here . . . Jafer's right wrist ended in the ruin of torn flesh and splintered bone left by Ghost's jaws. His right hand was floating in a jar of vinegar back in Maester Aemon's tower. His left hand, still at the end of his arm, was as black as his cloak. â€Å"Gods have mercy,† the Old Bear muttered. He swung down from his garron, handing his reins to Jon. The morning was unnaturally warm; beads of sweat dotted the Lord Commander's broad forehead like dew on a melon. His horse was nervous, rolling her eyes, backing away from the dead men as far as her lead would allow. Jon led her off a few paces, fighting to keep her from bolting. The horses did not like the feel of this place. For that matter, neither did Jon. The dogs liked it least of all. Ghost had led the party here; the pack of hounds had been useless. When Bass the kennelmaster had tried to get them to take the scent from the severed hand, they had gone wild, yowling and barking, fighting to get away. Even now they were snarling and whimpering by turns, pulling at their leashes while Chett cursed them for curs. It is only a wood, Jon told himself, and they're only dead men. He had seen dead men before . . . Last night he had dreamt the Winterfell dream again. He was wandering the empty castle, searching for his father, descending into the crypts. Only this time the dream had gone further than before. In the dark he'd heard the scrape of stone on stone. When he turned he saw that the vaults were opening, one after the other. As the dead kings came stumbling from their cold black graves, Jon had woken in pitch-dark, his heart hammering. Even when Ghost leapt up on the bed to nuzzle at his face, he could not shake his deep sense of terror. He dared not go back to sleep. Instead he had climbed the Wall and walked, restless, until he saw the light of the dawn off to the cast. It was only a dream. I am a brother of the Night's Watch now, not a frightened boy. Samwell Tarly huddled beneath the trees, half-hidden behind the horses. His round fat face was the color of curdled milk. So far he had not lurched off to the woods to retch, but he had not so much as glanced at the dead men either. â€Å"I can't look,† he whispered miserably. â€Å"You have to look,† Jon told him, keeping his voice low so the others would not hear. â€Å"Maester Aemon sent you to be his eyes, didn't he? What good are eyes if they're shut?† â€Å"Yes, but . . . I'm such a coward, Jon.† Jon put a hand on Sam's shoulder. â€Å"We have a dozen rangers with us, and the dogs, even Ghost. No one will hurt you, Sam. Go ahead and look. The first look is the hardest.† Sam gave a tremulous nod, working up his courage with a visible effort. Slowly he swiveled his head. His eyes widened, but Jon held his arm so he could not turn away. â€Å"Ser Jaremy,† the Old Bear asked gruffly, â€Å"Ben Stark had six men with him when he rode from the Wall. Where are the others?† Ser Jaremy shook his head. â€Å"Would that I knew.† Plainly Mormont was not pleased with that answer. â€Å"Two of our brothers butchered almost within sight of the Wall, yet your rangers heard nothing, saw nothing. Is this what the Night's Watch has fallen to? Do we still sweep these woods?† â€Å"Yes, my lord, but—† â€Å"Do we still mount watches?† â€Å"We do, but—† â€Å"This man wears a hunting horn.† Mormont pointed at Othor. â€Å"Must I suppose that he died without sounding it? Or have your rangers all gone deaf as well as blind?† Ser Jaremy bristled, his face taut with anger. â€Å"No horn was blown, my lord, or my rangers would have heard it. I do not have sufficient men to mount as many patrols as I should like . . . and since Benjen was lost, we have stayed closer to the Wall than we were wont to do before, by your own command.† The Old Bear grunted. â€Å"Yes. Well. Be that as it may.† He made an impatient gesture. â€Å"Tell me how they died.† Squatting beside the dead man he had named Jafer Flowers, Ser Jaremy grasped his head by the scalp. The hair came out between his fingers, brittle as straw. The knight cursed and shoved at the face with the heel of his hand. A great gash in the side of the corpse's neck opened like a mouth, crusted with dried blood. Only a few ropes of pale tendon still attached the head to the neck. â€Å"This was done with an axe.† â€Å"Aye,† muttered Dywen, the old forester. â€Å"Belike the axe that Othor carried, m'lord.† Jon could feel his breakfast churning in his belly, but he pressed his lips together and made himself look at the second body. Othor had been a big ugly man, and he made a big ugly corpse. No axe was in evidence. Jon remembered Othor; he had been the one bellowing the bawdy song as the rangers rode out. His singing days were done. His flesh was blanched white as milk, everywhere but his hands. His hands were black like Jafer's. Blossoms of hard cracked blood decorated the mortal wounds that covered him like a rash, breast and groin and throat. Yet his eyes were still open. They stared up at the sky, blue as sapphires. Ser Jaremy stood. â€Å"The wildlings have axes too.† Mormont rounded on him. â€Å"So you believe this is Mance Rayder's work? This close to the Wall?† â€Å"Who else, my lord?† Jon could have told him. He knew, they all knew, yet no man of them would say the words. The Others are only a story, a tale to make children shiver. If they ever lived at all, they are gone eight thousand years. Even the thought made him feel foolish; he was a man grown now, a black brother of the Night's Watch, not the boy who'd once sat at Old Nan's feet with Bran and Robb and Arya. Yet Lord Commander Mormont gave a snort. â€Å"If Ben Stark had come under wildling attack a half day's ride from Castle Black, he would have returned for more men, chased the killers through all seven hells and brought me back their heads.† â€Å"Unless he was slain as well,† Ser Jaremy insisted. The words hurt, even now. It had been so long, it seemed folly to cling to the hope that Ben Stark was still alive, but Jon Snow was nothing if not stubborn. â€Å"It has been close on half a year since Benjen left us, my lord,† Ser Jaremy went on. â€Å"The forest is vast. The wildlings might have fallen on him anywhere. I'd wager these two were the last survivors of his party, on their way back to us . . . but the enemy caught them before they could reach the safety of the Wall. The corpses are still fresh, these men cannot have been dead more than a day . . . .† â€Å"No,† Samwell Tarly squeaked. Jon was startled. Sam's nervous, high-pitched voice was the last he would have expected to hear. The fat boy was frightened of the officers, and Ser Jaremy was not known for his patience. â€Å"I did not ask for your views, boy,† Rykker said coldly. â€Å"Let him speak, ser,† Jon blurted. Mormont's eyes flicked from Sam to Jon and back again. â€Å"If the lad has something to say, I'll hear him out. Come closer, boy. We can't see you behind those horses.† Sam edged past Jon and the garrons, sweating profusely. â€Å"My lord, it . . . it can't be a day or . . . look . . . the blood . . . â€Å" â€Å"Yes?† Mormont growled impatiently. â€Å"Blood, what of it?† â€Å"He soils his smallclothes at the sight of it,† Chett shouted out, and the rangers laughed. Sam mopped at the sweat on his brow. â€Å"You . . . you can see where Ghost . . . Jon's direwolf . . . you can see where he tore off that man's hand, and yet . . . the stump hasn't bled, look . . . † He waved a hand. â€Å"My father . . . L-lord Randyll, he, he made me watch him dress animals sometimes, when . . . after . . . † Sam shook his head from side to side, his chins quivering. Now that he had looked at the bodies, he could not seem to look away. â€Å"A fresh kill . . . the blood would still flow, my lords. Later . . . later it would be clotted, like a . . . a jelly, thick and . . . and . . . † He looked as though he was going to be sick. â€Å"This man . . . look at the wrist, it's all . . . crusty . . . dry . . . like . . . â€Å" Jon saw at once what Sam meant. He could see the torn veins in the dead man's wrist, iron worms in the pale flesh. His blood was a black dust. Yet Jaremy Rykker was unconvinced. â€Å"If they'd been dead much longer than a day, they'd be ripe by now, boy. They don't even smell.† Dywen, the gnarled old forester who liked to boast that he could smell snow coming on, sidled closer to the corpses and took a whiff. â€Å"Well, they're no pansy flowers, but . . . m'lord has the truth of it. There's no corpse stink.† â€Å"They . . . they aren't rotting.† Sam pointed, his fat finger shaking only a little. â€Å"Look, there's . . . there's no maggots or . . . or . . . worms or anything . . . they've been lying here in the woods, but they . . . they haven't been chewed or eaten by animals . . . only Ghost . . . otherwise they're . . . they're . . . â€Å" â€Å"Untouched,† Jon said softly. â€Å"And Ghost is different. The dogs and the horses won't go near them.† The rangers exchanged glances; they could see it was true, every man of them. Mormont frowned, glancing from the corpses to the dogs. â€Å"Chett, bring the hounds closer.† Chett tried, cursing, yanking on the leashes, giving one animal a lick of his boot. Most of the dogs just whimpered and planted their feet. He tried dragging one. The bitch resisted, growling and squirming as if to escape her collar. Finally she lunged at him. Chett dropped the leash and stumbled backward. The dog leapt over him and bounded off into the trees. â€Å"This . . . this is all wrong,† Sam Tarly said earnestly. â€Å"The blood . . . there's bloodstains on their clothes, and . . . and their flesh, dry and hard, but . . . there's none on the ground, or . . . anywhere. With those . . . those . . . those . . . † Sam made himself swallow, took a deep breath. â€Å"With those wounds . . . terrible wounds . . . there should be blood all over. Shouldn't there?† Dywen sucked at his wooden teeth. â€Å"Might be they didn't die here. Might be someone brought 'em and left 'em for us. A warning, as like.† The old forester peered down suspiciously. â€Å"And might be I'm a fool, but I don't know that Othor never had no blue eyes afore.† Ser Jaremy looked startled. â€Å"Neither did Flowers,† he blurted, turning to stare at the dead man. A silence fell over the wood. For a moment all they heard was Sam's heavy breathing and the wet sound of Dywen sucking on his teeth. Jon squatted beside Ghost. â€Å"Burn them,† someone whispered. One of the rangers; Jon could not have said who. â€Å"Yes, burn them,† a second voice urged. The Old Bear gave a stubborn shake of his head. â€Å"Not yet. I want Maester Aemon to have a look at them. We'll bring them back to the Wall.† Some commands are more easily given than obeyed. They wrapped the dead men in cloaks, but when Hake and Dywen tried to tie one onto a horse, the animal went mad, screaming and rearing, lashing out with its hooves, even biting at Ketter when he ran to help. The rangers had no better luck with the other garrons; not even the most placid wanted any part of these burdens. In the end they were forced to hack off branches and fashion crude slings to carry the corpses back on foot. It was well past midday by the time they started back. â€Å"I will have these woods searched,† Mormont commanded Ser Jaremy as they set out. â€Å"Every tree, every rock, every bush, and every foot of muddy ground within ten leagues of here. Use all the men you have, and if you do not have enough, borrow hunters and foresters from the stewards. If Ben and the others are out here, dead or alive, I will have them found. And if there is anyone else in these woods, I will know of it. You are to track them and take them, alive if possible. Is that understood?† â€Å"It is, my lord,† Ser Jaremy said. â€Å"It will be done.† After that, Mormont rode in silence, brooding. Jon followed close behind him; as the Lord Commander's steward, that was his place. The day was grey, damp, overcast, the sort of day that made you wish for rain. No wind stirred the wood; the air hung humid and heavy, and Jon's clothes clung to his skin. It was warm. Too warm. The Wall was weeping copiously, had been weeping for days, and sometimes Jon even imagined it was shrinking. The old men called this weather spirit summer, and said it meant the season was giving up its ghosts at last. After this the cold would come, they warned, and a long summer always meant a long winter. This summer had lasted ten years. Jon had been a babe in arms when it began. Ghost ran with them for a time and then vanished among the trees. Without the direwolf, Jon felt almost naked. He found himself glancing at every shadow with unease. Unbidden, he thought back on the tales that Old Nan used to tell them, when he was a boy at Winterfell. He could almost hear her voice again, and the click-click-click of her needles. In that darkness, the Others came riding, she used to say, dropping her voice lower and lower. Cold and dead they were, and they hated iron and fire and the touch of the sun, and every living creature with hot blood in its veins. Holdfasts and cities and kingdoms of men all fell before them, as they moved south on pale dead horses, leading hosts of the slain. They fed their dead servants on the flesh of human children . . . When he caught his first glimpse of the Wall looming above the tops of an ancient gnarled oak, Jon was vastly relieved. Mormont reined up suddenly and turned in his saddle. â€Å"Tarly,† he barked, â€Å"come here.† Jon saw the start of fright on Sam's face as he lumbered up on his mare; doubtless he thought he was in trouble. â€Å"You're fat but you're not stupid, boy,† the Old Bear said gruffly. â€Å"You did well back there. And you, Snow.† Sam blushed a vivid crimson and tripped over his own tongue as he tried to stammer out a courtesy. Jon had to smile. When they emerged from under the trees, Mormont spurred his tough little garron to a trot. Ghost came streaking out from the woods to meet them, licking his chops, his muzzle red from prey. High above, the men on the Wall saw the column approaching. Jon heard the deep, throaty call of the watchman's great horn, calling out across the miles; a single long blast that shuddered through the trees and echoed off the ice. UUUUUUUOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooooooo. The sound faded slowly to silence. One blast meant rangers returning, and Jon thought, I was a ranger for one day, at least. Whatever may come, they cannot take that away from me. Bowen Marsh was waiting at the first gate as they led their garrons through the icy tunnel. The Lord Steward was red-faced and agitated. â€Å"My lord,† he blurted at Mormont as he swung open the iron bars, â€Å"there's been a bird, you must come at once.† â€Å"What is it, man?† Mormont said gruffly. Curiously, Marsh glanced at Jon before he answered. â€Å"Maester Aemon has the letter. He's waiting in your solar.† â€Å"Very well. Jon, see to my horse, and tell Ser Jaremy to put the dead men in a storeroom until the maester is ready for them.† Mormont strode away grumbling. As they led their horses back to the stable, Jon was uncomfortably aware that people were watching him. Ser Alliser Thorne was drilling his boys in the yard, but he broke off to stare at Jon, a faint half smile on his lips. One-armed Donal Noye stood in the door of the armory. â€Å"The gods be with you, Snow,† he called out. Something's wrong, Jon thought. Something's very wrong. The dead men were carried to one of the storerooms along the base of the Wall, a dark cold cell chiseled from the ice and used to keep meat and grain and sometimes even beer. Jon saw that Mormont's horse was fed and watered and groomed before he took care of his own. Afterward he sought out his friends. Grenn and Toad were on watch, but he found Pyp in the common hall. â€Å"What's happened?† he asked. Pyp lowered his voice. â€Å"The king's dead.† Jon was stunned. Robert Baratheon had looked old and fat when he visited Winterfell, yet he'd seemed hale enough, and there'd been no talk of illness. â€Å"How can you know?† â€Å"One of the guards overheard Clydas reading the letter to Maester Aemon.† Pyp leaned close. â€Å"Jon, I'm sorry. He was your father's friend, wasn't he?† â€Å"They were as close as brothers, once.† Jon wondered if Joffrey would keep his father as the King's Hand. It did not seem likely. That might mean Lord Eddard would return to Winterfell, and his sisters as well. He might even be allowed to visit them, with Lord Mormont's permission. It would be good to see Arya's grin again and to talk with his father. I will ask him about my mother, he resolved. I am a man now, it is past time he told me. Even if she was a whore, I don't care, I want to know. â€Å"I heard Hake say the dead men were your uncle's,† Pyp said. â€Å"Yes,† Jon replied. â€Å"Two of the six he took with him. They'd been dead a long time, only . . . the bodies are queer.† â€Å"Queer?† Pyp was all curiosity. â€Å"How queer?† â€Å"Sam will tell you.† Jon did not want to talk of it. â€Å"I should see if the Old Bear has need of me.† He walked to the Lord Commander's Tower alone, with a curious sense of apprehension. The brothers on guard eyed him solemnly as he approached. â€Å"The Old Bear's in his solar,† one of them announced. â€Å"He was asking for you.† Jon nodded. He should have come straight from the stable. He climbed the tower steps briskly. He wants wine or a fire in his hearth, that's all, he told himself. When he entered the solar, Mormont's raven screamed at him. â€Å"Corn!† the bird shrieked. â€Å"Corn! Corn! Corn!† â€Å"Don't you believe it, I just fed him,† the Old Bear growled. He was seated by the window, reading a letter. â€Å"Bring me a cup of wine, and pour one for yourself.† â€Å"For myself, my lord?† Mormont lifted his eyes from the letter to stare at Jon. There was pity in that look; he could taste it. â€Å"You heard me.† Jon poured with exaggerated care, vaguely aware that he was drawing out the act. When the cups were filled, he would have no choice but to face whatever was in that letter. Yet all too soon, they were filled. â€Å"Sit, boy,† Mormont commanded him. â€Å"Drink.† Jon remained standing. â€Å"It's my father, isn't it?† The Old Bear tapped the letter with a finger. â€Å"Your father and the king,† he rumbled. â€Å"I won't lie to you, it's grievous news. I never thought to see another king, not at my age, with Robert half my years and strong as a bull.† He took a gulp of wine. â€Å"They say the king loved to hunt. The things we love destroy us every time, lad. Remember that. My son loved that young wife of his. Vain woman. If not for her, he would never have thought to sell those poachers.† Jon could scarcely follow what he was saying. â€Å"My lord, I don't understand. What's happened to my father?† â€Å"I told you to sit,† Mormont grumbled. â€Å"Sit,† the raven screamed. â€Å"And have a drink, damn you. That's a command, Snow.† Jon sat, and took a sip of wine. â€Å"Lord Eddard has been imprisoned. He is charged with treason. It is said he plotted with Robert's brothers to deny the throne to Prince Joffrey.† â€Å"No,† Jon said at once. â€Å"That couldn't be. My father would never betray the king!† â€Å"Be that as it may,† said Mormont. â€Å"It is not for me to say. Nor for you.† â€Å"But it's a lie,† Jon insisted. How could they think his father was a traitor, had they all gone mad? Lord Eddard Stark would never dishonor himself . . . would he? He fathered a bastard, a small voice whispered inside him. Where was the honor in that? And your mother, what of her? He will not even speak her name. â€Å"My lord, what will happen to him? Will they kill him?† â€Å"As to that, I cannot say, lad. I mean to send a letter. I knew some of the king's councillors in my youth. Old Pycelle, Lord Stannis, Ser Barristan . . . Whatever your father has done, or hasn't done, he is a great lord. He must be allowed to take the black and join us here. Gods knows, we need men of Lord Eddard's ability.† Jon knew that other men accused of treason had been allowed to redeem their honor on the Wall in days past. Why not Lord Eddard? His father here. That was a strange thought, and strangely uncomfortable. It would be a monstrous injustice to strip him of Winterfell and force him to take the black, and yet if it meant his life . . . And would Joffrey allow it? He remembered the prince at Winterfell, the way he'd mocked Robb and Ser Rodrik in the yard. Jon himself he had scarcely even noticed; bastards were beneath even his contempt. â€Å"My lord, will the king listen to you?† The Old Bear shrugged. â€Å"A boy king . . . I imagine he'll listen to his mother. A pity the dwarf isn't with them. He's the lad's uncle, and he saw our need when he visited us. It was a bad thing, your lady mother taking him captive—† â€Å"Lady Stark is not my mother,† Jon reminded him sharply. Tyrion Lannister had been a friend to him. If Lord Eddard was killed, she would be as much to blame as the queen. â€Å"My lord, what of my sisters? Arya and Sansa, they were with my father, do you know—† â€Å"Pycelle makes no mention of them, but doubtless they'll be treated gently. I will ask about them when I write.† Mormont shook his head. â€Å"This could not have happened at a worse time. If ever the realm needed a strong king . . . there are dark days and cold nights ahead, I feel it in my bones . . . † He gave Jon a long shrewd look. â€Å"I hope you are not thinking of doing anything stupid, boy.† He's my father, Jon wanted to say, but he knew that Mormont would not want to hear it. His throat was dry. He made himself take another sip of wine. â€Å"Your duty is here now,† the Lord Commander reminded him. â€Å"Your old life ended when you took the black.† His bird made a raucous echo. â€Å"Black.† Mormont took no notice. â€Å"Whatever they do in King's Landing is none of our concern.† When Jon did not answer, the old man finished his wine and said, â€Å"You're free to go. I'll have no further need of you today. On the morrow you can help me write that letter.† Jon did not remember standing or leaving the solar. The next he knew, he was descending the tower steps, thinking, This is my father, my sisters, how can it be none of my concern? Outside, one of the guards looked at him and said, â€Å"Be strong, boy. The gods are cruel.† They know, Jon realized. â€Å"My father is no traitor,† he said hoarsely. Even the words stuck in his throat, as if to choke him. The wind was rising, and it seemed colder in the yard than it had when he'd gone in. Spirit summer was drawing to an end. The rest of the afternoon passed as if in a dream. Jon could not have said where he walked, what he did, who he spoke with. Ghost was with him, he knew that much. The silent presence of the direwolf gave him comfort. The girls do not even have that much, he thought. Their wolves might have kept them safe, but Lady is dead and Nymeria's lost, they're all alone. A north wind had begun to blow by the time the sun went down. Jon could hear it skirling against the Wall and over the icy battlements as he went to the common hall for the evening meal. Hobb had cooked up a venison stew, thick with barley, onions, and carrots. When he spooned an extra portion onto Jon's plate and gave him the crusty heel of the bread, he knew what it meant. He knows. He looked around the hall, saw heads turn quickly, eyes politely averted. They all know. His friends rallied to him. â€Å"We asked the septon to light a candle for your father,† Matthar told him. â€Å"It's a lie, we all know it's a lie, even Grenn knows it's a lie,† Pyp chimed in. Grenn nodded, and Sam clasped Jon's hand, â€Å"You're my brother now, so he's my father too,† the fat boy said. â€Å"If you want to go out to the weirwoods and pray to the old gods, I'll go with you.† The weirwoods were beyond the Wall, yet he knew Sam meant what he said. They are my brothers, he thought. As much as Robb and Bran and Rickon . . . And then he heard the laughter, sharp and cruel as a whip, and the voice of Ser Alliser Thorne. â€Å"Not only a bastard, but a traitor's bastard,† he was telling the men around him. In the blink of an eye, Jon had vaulted onto the table, dagger in his hand. Pyp made a grab for him, but he wrenched his leg away, and then he was sprinting down the table and kicking the bowl from Ser Alliser's hand. Stew went flying everywhere, spattering the brothers. Thorne recoiled. People were shouting, but Jon Snow did not hear them. He lunged at Ser Alliser's face with the dagger, slashing at those cold onyx eyes, but Sam threw himself between them and before Jon could get around him, Pyp was on his back clinging like a monkey, and Grenn was grabbing his arm while Toad wrenched the knife from his fingers. Later, much later, after they had marched him back to his sleeping cell, Mormont came down to see him, raven on his shoulder. â€Å"I told you not to do anything stupid, boy,† the Old Bear said. â€Å"Boy,† the bird chorused. Mormont shook his head, disgusted. â€Å"And to think I had high hopes for you.† They took his knife and his sword and told him he was not to leave his cell until the high officers met to decide what was to be done with him. And then they placed a guard outside his door to make certain he obeyed. His friends were not allowed to see him, but the Old Bear did relent and permit him Ghost, so he was not utterly alone. â€Å"My father is no traitor,† he told the direwolf when the rest had gone. Ghost looked at him in silence. Jon slumped against the wall, hands around his knees, and stared at the candle on the table beside his narrow bed. The flame flickered and swayed, the shadows moved around him, the room seemed to grow darker and colder. I will not sleep tonight, Jon thought. Yet he must have dozed. When he woke, his legs were stiff and cramped and the candle had long since burned out. Ghost stood on his hind legs, scrabbling at the door. Jon was startled to see how tall he'd grown. â€Å"Ghost, what is it?† he called softly. The direwolf turned his head and looked down at him, baring his fangs in a silent snarl. Has he gone mad? Jon wondered. â€Å"It's me, Ghost,† he murmured, trying not to sound afraid. Yet he was trembling, violently. When had it gotten so cold? Ghost backed away from the door. There were deep gouges where he'd raked the wood. Jon watched him with mounting disquiet. â€Å"There's someone out there, isn't there?† he whispered. Crouching, the direwolf crept backward, white fur rising on the back of his neck. The guard, he thought, they left a man to guard my door, Ghost smells him through the door, that's all it is. Slowly, Jon pushed himself to his feet. He was shivering uncontrollably, wishing he still had a sword. Three quick steps brought him to the door. He grabbed the handle and pulled it inward. The creak of the hinges almost made him jump. His guard was sprawled bonelessly across the narrow steps, looking up at him. Looking up at him, even though he was lying on his stomach. His head had been twisted completely around. It can't be, Jon told himself. This is the Lord Commander's Tower, it's guarded day and night, this couldn't happen, it's a dream, I'm having a nightmare. Ghost slid past him, out the door. The wolf started up the steps, stopped, looked back at Jon. That was when he heard it; the soft scrape of a boot on stone, the sound of a latch turning. The sounds came from above. From the Lord Commander's chambers. A nightmare this might be, yet it was no dream. The guard's sword was in its sheath. Jon knelt and worked it free. The heft of steel in his fist made him bolder. He moved up the steps, Ghost padding silently before him. Shadows lurked in every turn of the stair. Jon crept up warily, probing any suspicious darkness with the point of his sword. Suddenly he heard the shriek of Mormont's raven. â€Å"Corn,† the bird was screaming. â€Å"Corn, corn, corn, corn, corn, corn.† Ghost bounded ahead, and Jon came scrambling after. The door to Mormont's solar was wide open. The direwolf plunged through. Jon stopped in the doorway, blade in hand, giving his eyes a moment to adjust. Heavy drapes had been pulled across the windows, and the darkness was black as ink. â€Å"Who's there?† he called out. Then he saw it, a shadow in the shadows, sliding toward the inner door that led to Mormont's sleeping cell, a man-shape all in black, cloaked and hooded . . . but beneath the hood, its eyes shone with an icy blue radiance . . . Ghost leapt. Man and wolf went down together with neither scream nor snarl, rolling, smashing into a chair, knocking over a table laden with papers. Mormont's raven was flapping overhead, screaming, â€Å"Corn, corn, corn, corn.† Jon felt as blind as Maester Aemon. Keeping the wall to his back, he slid toward the window and ripped down the curtain. Moonlight flooded the solar. He glimpsed black hands buried in white fur, swollen dark fingers tightening around his direwolf's throat. Ghost was twisting and snapping, legs flailing in the air, but he could not break free. Jon had no time to be afraid. He threw himself forward, shouting, bringing down the longsword with all his weight behind it. Steel sheared through sleeve and skin and bone, yet the sound was wrong somehow. The smell that engulfed him was so queer and cold he almost gagged. He saw arm and hand on the floor, black fingers wriggling in a pool of moonlight. Ghost wrenched free of the other hand and crept away, red tongue lolling from his mouth. The hooded man lifted his pale moon face, and Jon slashed at it without hesitation. The sword laid the intruder open to the bone, taking off half his nose and opening a gash cheek to cheek under those eyes, eyes, eyes like blue stars burning. Jon knew that face. Othor, he thought, reeling back. Gods, he's dead, he's dead, I saw him dead. He felt something scrabble at his ankle. Black fingers clawed at his calf. The arm was crawling up his leg, ripping at wool and flesh. Shouting with revulsion, Jon pried the fingers off his leg with the point of his sword and flipped the thing away. It lay writhing, fingers opening and closing. The corpse lurched forward. There was no blood. One-armed, face cut near in half, it seemed to feel nothing. Jon held the longsword before him. â€Å"Stay away!† he commanded, his voice gone shrill. â€Å"Corn,† screamed the raven, â€Å"corn, corn.† The severed arm was wriggling out of its torn sleeve, a pale snake with a black five-fingered head. Ghost pounced and got it between his teeth. Finger bones crunched. Jon hacked at the corpse's neck, felt the steel bite deep and hard. Dead Othor slammed into him, knocking him off his feet. Jon's breath went out of him as the fallen table caught him between his shoulder blades. The sword, where was the sword? He'd lost the damned sword! When he opened his mouth to scream, the wight jammed its black corpse fingers into Jon's mouth. Gagging, he tried to shove it off, but the dead man was too heavy. Its hand forced itself farther down his throat, icy cold, choking him. Its face was against his own, filling the world. Frost covered its eyes, sparkling blue. Jon raked cold flesh with his nails and kicked at the thing's legs. He tried to bite, tried to punch, tried to breathe . . . And suddenly the corpse's weight was gone, its fingers ripped from his throat. It was all Jon could do to roll over, retching and shaking. Ghost had it again. He watched as the direwolf buried his teeth in the wight's gut and began to rip and tear. He watched, only half conscious, for a long moment before he finally remembered to look for his sword . . . . . . and saw Lord Mormont, naked and groggy from sleep, standing in the doorway with an oil lamp in hand. Gnawed and fingerless, the arm thrashed on the floor, wriggling toward him. Jon tried to shout, but his voice was gone. Staggering to his feet, he kicked the arm away and snatched the lamp from the Old Bear's fingers. The flame flickered and almost died. â€Å"Burn!† the raven cawed. â€Å"Burn, burn, burn!† Spinning, Jon saw the drapes he'd ripped from the window. He flung the lamp into the puddled cloth with both hands. Metal crunched, glass shattered, oil spewed, and the hangings went up in a great whoosh of flame. The heat of it on his face was sweeter than any kiss Jon had ever known. â€Å"Ghost!† he shouted. The direwolf wrenched free and came to him as the wight struggled to rise, dark snakes spilling from the great wound in its belly. Jon plunged his hand into the flames, grabbed a fistful of the burning drapes, and whipped them at the dead man. Let it burn, he prayed as the cloth smothered the corpse, gods, please, please, let it burn.

Analysing The God Of Small Things English Literature Essay

Analysing The God Of Small Things English Literature Essay ‘May in Ayemenem is a hot, brooding month. The days are long and humid’. This luscious and mysterious description of India sounds unmistakably like a tourist novel yet this example of post colonial exoticism is used to lure in readers to the novel ‘The God of Small Things’. Whilst being better known for its celebrity stakes of the Booker Prize, the author Arundhati Roy is ethnic, a strong activist and her cultural authenticity passively provides an authentic Indian voice through her idealised western way of talking and thinking about the east. Roy plays into a colonial style known for its dominating, restructuring and authoritative power over India using references from politics and history to keep the story real and dangerously intoxicating for her western readers. It serves the dual purpose of being able to write back to the ’empire’ whilst becoming a product of global capitalism, hybridity of the west and the east, using eastern examples of western ideals through examples of critiqued power relations and subverted ideas of the ‘exotic’. The society of Ayamenem strongly follows westerns ideas adopted from its colonial background by living with a caste system in which there are two classes, the inferior ‘touchables’ who are of a higher class than the ‘untouchables’. This idea is borrowed from the class system of the British so the inequality between both is familiar to its readers but is also exotic in the way that it controls society and influences everyday life. The extremity of having the ‘untouchables’ so grateful to the ‘touchable’ class that a man is willing to kill his own son when he discovers that he has broken the most important caste rule, that there is no interclass relations. These rules of society are unknown to that of the reader; it provides them with the mystery and danger of the exotic. Also having no interclass relations means that there is a lot of tension in the relationships between characters in the novel. The ‘untouchables’ have internalized class segregation and are aware of the limits of their place in society. Relationships with these people are strongly discouraged but the members of this family find reason to cross and defy these rules. This is unusual behaviour and the idea of resistance against the adopted colonial system is exciting to its western audience who believe that the underdog can win although Roy’s account provides enough twists and turns to keep the reader guessing the consequences of the characters defiance. The novel also exoticises India’s inequality, making it light hearted and approachable for its western audience. The style of writing suggests that Roy has written the story from an outsider’s perspective, looking, observing and commenting on daily life, ‘strange insects appeared like ideas in the evening’, questioning her authenticity thro ugh her strategic use of words and in this example she tells the reader of ‘strange’ insects in the afternoon yet these insects should be familiar to the teller of the story. This westernisation becomes more apparent through Indian society who seem like they are trying to appeal to the wider western audience. While choosing a name for the family pickle company the relevance of the name was an important factor, ‘At first he wanted to call it Zeus Pickles and Preserves, but that idea was vetoed because everybody said that Zeus was too obscure and had no local relevance, whereas Paradise did. (Comrade Pillai’s suggestion -Parashuram Pickles was vetoed for the opposite reason: too much local relevance).’ Instead of marketing to their local community, the name Paradise seemed more suitable which shows how self aware their society has become knowing that the pickling company could be seen on a global scale promoting its exotic feeling to produce global pro duct. Roy promotes this kind of thinking throughout her novel and in a sense she is able to ‘sell’ her culture through her strategic storytelling. She tells of hotels that have truncated traditional kathakali performances from ‘six hour classics – to twenty minutes cameos’ for the small attention spans of the tourists. It shows how Indian society has given into its colonialisation, allowing their cultural values and actions to be altered so that it can be marketed on a global scale. The strategic use of how India will be seen from a tourist point of view appeals greatly to those who have never seen India and in these terms Roy provides the idealistic tourist guide that they have been seeking with bite sized portions of a culturally authentic experience such as her use of traditional Malayalam words throughout the text.

Chinese Women and Culture Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Chinese Women and Culture - Essay Example The recent developments on China portray a comparatively liberal image of the women than was possible some decades ago. Not too far off in history, in fact if a critical analysis is made for the 1980`s and the 1990`s both the authorities in China as well as the traditional Chinese society were resistant to the growth of feminist attitudes.The traditional ancient Chinese rituals and belief systems though still prevalent to some extent in China adds to the limitations that women have to face to contribute significantly to the Chinese cultures and traditions. 1990`s however opened doors towards acceptance to the fact that women can also significantly contribute to the cultural development in China.To understand China in the modern context, it is crucial to analyze the role of women in the ancient century as well so that patterns in evolution can be drawn.China is always perceived as a culturally isolated and a backward society, and the image of the state is that of an authoritarian tyra nnical one. Modern elements of change like modern art, modern music, internet evolution and social networking seems to be absent and highly controlled. The beginning of the new century saw an immense increase in modernization. With the opening of market in the late 1990`s, China`s economy started to boom as markets expanded and modernized. Cultural values, however, didn’t saw as immense of a change but some level of change was inevitable and 12 Girls Band is the product of this change. Thus, 12 Girls Band is symbolic for women empowerment, the ability for Chinese to preserve their traditional legacies, portraying a liberal yet sophisticated image of Chinese woman throughout the world. All members of the 12 Girls Band are thus Ambassadors to China who have positively affected the cultural variables in China at home and abroad. To understand China in the modern context, it is crucial to analyze the role of women in the ancient century as well so that patterns in evolution can b e drawn. In the ancient China women were considered to be inferior to men, and all their lives they were expected to obey the male members of the family, thus they had no freedom of their own and their role towards cultural community development was absent. The practice of binding women`s feet is symbolic for the control over women during that century. However, with time when the People`s Republic of China was found the role of women started to change, at least rhetorically and a significant level of independence was gained by the women. It wasn’t until 1979 that the government enacted reforms which enabled women to seek jobs in the market. This was the beginning of the initiation of the contribution of women to art; however the role was still very limited. However, with the cultural revolutions more and more opportunities were produced for the women and the process of evolution began to speed up (Wales 1967). Until the 1990`s the women were significantly contributing economi cally as well as culturally to the Chinese legacy. During this period, women poetry groups and arts clubs began to emerge and their activities began to enhance rapidly (Descoteaux 2008). The beginning of the new century saw an immense increase in modernization, and thus 12 Girls Band is a product of the modernization and cultural fusion. The band was selected in an audition in 2001, and twelve members later constituting of thirteen members, this band was a unique blend of girls who knew to play diverse range of instruments both modern and traditional in nature. All band members have gone through rigorous trainings in the field, and all of them belong to the conservatories groups which include the China`s Academy of Music, Central Conservatory of Music and the Chinese National Orchestra. The idea behind the concept belongs to Wang Xio-Jing who wanted twelve members for a band and his aim was to promote folk music however make it appealing by adding a modern touch to it. Thus, the wom en were inspired by the work of Yue

Amniocentesis Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 3

Amniocentesis - Essay Example The risks and benefits of amniocentesis should be considered before opting for this prenatal test. Amniocentesis is mostly recommended after false positive or false negative triple screen test which is a simple blood tests used for the same purposes. Amniocentesis is performed with the aid of ultrasound and the amniotic fluid is collected through a needle and takes about 45 minutes. The collected fluid is used for laboratory analysis. 14 and 20 weeks of pregnancy are the most suitable time for the procedure to be performed. However, the amniocentesis can be delayed till the third trimester (America Pregnancy Association 2006). The procedure is indicated mostly in pregnant women above the age of 35, a couple who has a history of previous children with Down’s Syndrome or any other chromosomal abnormality, history of genetic disease in the family and detection of any chromosomal abnormality in any of the parents (Sloane 2002). The most common chromosomal abnormality looked for in amniocentesis is Down’s syndrome or Trisomy 21. Neural tube defects like spina bifida and genetic disorders like cystic fibrosis are also looked for in the amniotic fluid. More than 70 inborn errors of metabolism can be detected through amniocentesis for instance Tay’ Sachs disease, Fabry’s disease, galactosemia and Gaucher’s disease. The increasing age of the mother is a high risk factor for development of chromosomal abnormalities specifically Down’s syndrome. Hence, the importance of amniocentesis in older age mothers increases. With early detection of the disorders, an abortion can be performed to prevent the birth of a baby suffering from a lifetime of deformity and suffering. However, those who disagree with the notion of abortion, this procedure is mostly useless for them (Sloane 2002; American Pregnancy Association 2006). Since

IR theorists specifically in the realist school have emphasized the Essay

IR theorists specifically in the realist school have emphasized the important role of states and their interaction in the intern - Essay Example The Realist school of thoughts presents the nation as the most important force in international politics. According to this school of thoughts the states are sovereign. Therefore a state’s authority is higher than all other non-state players like the transnational enterprises, the nongovernmental organizations, or the international organizations. All the states act in their own national interest. The Realist school of thoughts promotes the idea of states interlocked in a constant struggle for power to establish their supremacy over the others. However this struggle for power and the domination of one particular state over the others lead to a counter force against the dominant state. As a result the global balance is restored. In this struggle for power and the counter struggle military of the nations act as significant sources of power (Pant, n.d., 3; Spiegel, 2011). The states also collaborate with the other states for their national interest. The struggle for power between nations during the Cold War is an example of the Realist theory of international relations. The other states also adapt to the existing system of power on the world platform and align themselves according to their national interest. ... Realists and Market   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Globalization is a phenomenon that has caught the attention of scholars around the world. According to McGrew globalization is the growing interconnectivity and linkage that has transcended the national boundaries. It is a feature of the modern world system. By this process, any event, decision or action by a certain nation affects the residents of a different nation (Koffman, Youngs, 116). It has resulted in the integration of the entire world (Baylis, Smith, & Owens, 14, 15). According to the realists, the states have exhibited accepted globalization properly and ultimately they have played a key role in the process of globalization. Various developments had indirect influence of the state. The authors argue that the states have indeed established their sovereignty and not lost control in the age of globalization. The states have been the most significant drivers of the process of globalization through relaxing the regulation of the markets. Therefore there is a presence of state in the emergence of globalization. For a market to operate successfully there needs to be rigid enforcement of laws. The states act as the primary regulator of market. The rise in the number of multilateral trade policies shows how the states can incorporate the process of globalization in their plans and policy in the interest of their nation (Taylor, 2006).   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  In the age of globalization human rights have received considerable focus and international standards of worker’s and civilian rights have emerged. But the realist school advocates that this attention on human rights have been possible due to the hegemony of the powerful nations. The powerful nations are mostly democratic countries. Therefore they have set up norms of

Key features of skill and composition Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Key features of skill and composition - Essay Example The game ensures that each player is concentrating on making goals. Thus, each player must also focus on playing an aggressive and intense game ensuring effective communication and making quick decisions along the way. The most important aspect of the game is playing in synchrony which allows an effective and victorious game for the team (Hale & Collins). With the game being as competitive as it is, it is necessary for the players to be well-versed in the knowledge of the game along with being agile and highly skilled. The basic skill required by any rugby player is their use of the ball. This includes how the player picks up the ball, how to control the ball by falling onto it and how to pick up a ball from the ground (Oberhoizer). While these might seem like minute details to the discerning eye they will be of great importance during the game. The skills required for rugby concentrate not on the ball alone. The handling of the ball is also of great importance. The different handling of the ball is important as are the tackling skills while running with the ball. Included in these are the kicking skills that ensure that the player excels not only by running with the ball but also protecting the ball from defense. The passing skills are just as important. Thus, catching, passing, kicking, tackling and evasion are all considered to be important skills while playing rugby. With all these skills it's expected for rugby to be a difficult and strenuous game to play. It is for this reason that playing a safe game is vital to ensure the true spirit of the game (Greenwood 2003). Every player is expected to use exercises that best manipulate and create their skills to help in the game. Not only are the players taught skills but also how to implement these skills in the best way possible (Passos 2008). The traditional modes of rugby teachings are deterministic. They leave no place for spontaneity instead depending on the playing itself. The performance of the players is kept against the variations in play because of the uncertainty of the game. Thus when the game is planned, coaches work to ensure that the variability of the players' actions and their decision making skills are decreased because of the plans that they must play out. This can be done by practicing skills without any opposition or facing passive opposition to ensure that the team's skills are p erfected. It also includes practicing drills in a repetitive order to make sure that the players movements are not uncertain during the game. By practicing according to these rules, the movements of the players become fluid and predictable, reducing the chances of a mistake or surprise move during the game. However, the playing of the game itself is still dependant on the agility and skills of each individual. There is also the belief that it is necessary for any successful player to change and adapt accordingly to the game. Even if the player has practiced a specific move, the changing dynamics of the game will ensure that it's difficult to imply them. Thus, according to Lebed it is vital for the players to be accustomed to playing a competitive match (2006). This is a far cry from the traditional methods which decide on a planned game. The biggest criticism is the fact that this type of

Quantitative Analysis for Business....Data Collection Essay

Quantitative Analysis for Business....Data Collection - Essay Example With quantitative research, the data collection process works with a stated hypothesis that works with a stated theory. In the case of BIMS, data collection is acquired from patients exposed to different medications and other measures. The various methods that fall under the quantitative include experiments, observation, using management systems to acquire information and conducting surveys (University of Pheonix, n.d.). The major merits associated with these methodologies are that they produce relevant results, as detailed results are obtained from the experiments. The researchers work with real time experiences hence are able to record details that may be used as constrains. The main disadvantage of quantitative is that they are time consuming as massive data entry takes place in the continuity of the process. The method is also prone to error as many data entry of the information is done by individuals, who might key in incorrect information. Quantitative methods of collecting data are expensive, as the researchers might require incentives to lure potential information givers. Also, travelling from one location to another includes miscellaneous expenses (University of Pheonix,

Answer 4 questions on childhood & adult hunger & malnutrition in Essay

Answer 4 questions on childhood & adult hunger & malnutrition in developed and developing countries - Essay Example in scarcity of food products due to an unsustainable consumption that leads to cases of child and adult hunger in both developing and developed countries (Holtz, 2008). Another cause of child and adult hunger is global warming that has led to the changes in the weather patterns. Global warming has resulted in drying up of fertile land because of the minimal rain experienced that cannot sustain the crops and animals. Malnutrition is experienced as the people can’t eat a quality diet that will be good for their health (Holtz, 2008). One of the remedies to the child and adult hunger in both developed and developing countries is to have equality in healthcare system. This means that the health care system should be accessed for treatment and prevention services in both rural and urban populations. The healthcare system to have equality should also be affordable to the general public to avoid limiting those that have no income. (Holtz, 2008). Another remedy is environmental protection that involves conserving of natural recourses such as forests. The emissions of poisonous gases by industries should also be controlled by setting up laws that will minimize the environmental pollution in the urban cities (Holtz, 2008). The human right â€Å"Freedom from Hunger† is proclaimed in various constitutions worldwide as article 25. It articulates that every individual has the right to access a standard level of living in terms of food, shelter, clothing and health care. The right to food is recognized in general and in specific terms in the international law. That is why the World Food Program (WFP) was established by the UN to undertake humanitarian aid in alignment to the world hunger. This also led to the Freedom from Hunger Campaign that involved the cooperation of governments, NGOs and international organizations (Holtz, 2008). I agree with the human right of â€Å"Freedom from Hunger† as statistics have shown that 13 to 18 million people annually die of starvation and

Greenville Jenkins Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

Greenville Jenkins - Essay Example In the Marshalls case, Grenville Jenkins is discriminated against as the member of the Sustainability team because he ought to rectify where he sees excessive spending by the company officials. This is supposed to help in the cost cutting measures of the company. Instead of listening and acting to his claims, the top management ignores him which makes him feel discriminated against. The board of the directors dismisses his allegations instead of seeing into his case by finding relevant measures to counter what he says. Jenkins is frustrated because the law on discrimination of employees does not apply in this case. If were operational, someone could have listened to his allegations and at least put some efforts in rectifying the excesses in the company. As a sustainability member in the company, Jenkins has the right authority to comment about such cases as those of extravagance (EEOC 2009, 1). Maureen Gibson Maureen Gibson, who is the sales representative, is acting against the conf ines of the company regulations. She has turned the working place to a Christian conversion center and does not heed to the instruction. She wears a crucifix on the uniform which against the rules of the company. Even if the law of discrimination suggests that no employ need to be discriminated against her beliefs, Maureen is abusing the opportunity she has been given to the company. When she is warned not t use the company as a preaching ground, she threatens to take legal action, which is an, overreaction. She is supposed to be answerable because of breaking the policies set to enhance equality in the company because she is a distraction to the employees in the company by preaching to them at the wrong place and time (EEOC 2009, 1). The company policy that denies wearing of jewelry on the uniform will counter the case she wants to file for the company. She is defiant and misuses the freedom in the company. She has been performing non business activities in the company premise by m aking the employees uncomfortable. This is against the rules of the company which she chose not to respect. When Maureen is approached by the line manager, she says that she is being denied her rights but, in actual sense she is working out her rights in the wrong place. She is supposed to hearken unto the rules stipulated by the company before taking a step to sue the company. No one is against her work but, the line manager is against her evangelism which affects the comfort of the other workers. The law should also be used to address the case in which the line manager was told about the Maureen’s behavior but ignored. The law should be used to sensitize the company managers and board of directors about the consequence of discrimination (EEOC 2009, 1). Gary Gary who is the primary career of his disabled son needs to be allowed to have flexible working arrangement because he needs to attend to his son needs. Denying Gary that opportunity is as well as discriminating against physical disability. This should be termed as open discrimination be cause the company is in a position to organize a flexible arrangement for Gary to be of use to his disabled son. The company representatives are answerable to the law on discrimination in the company where there is a need to respond to the requests of the company. The company top management who are in the jurisdiction of planning favorable moments for Gary to work

The development of the drama Essay Example for Free

The development of the drama Essay Stimulus Whilst most of the stimulus was provided by the teacher, there was some pieces that were brought in by members of the group. Luke brought in a piece of music by The Streets entitled ‘The Irony of it All’. This stimulus provided the idea for the scene that compared weed and alcohol and later we used the lyrics as a ‘script’ for the scene. Research During the beginning stages of the production process, after we had first split into our smaller sub-groups we each went out and did individual research on the drug of our sub-group. For example, Alice Weaver researched LSD, and provided the group with an account of what it was like to experience an LSD trip – as well as the general effects of the drug. During the later stages of production the group researched quotes that could be used during the scenes to create almost verbatim parts to the play. Jack was responsible for finding some quotes to be used as his ‘Gerald McMillan’ character. These quotes were taken from the special ‘Question Time’ with David Davis and David Cameron. He also researched quotes from a previous interview with David Cameron. Script Writing We decided that some scenes should be scripted, in order to ensure that certain points were put across and important lines were said. This also was to increase the flow of the piece, and ensure that scenes did not ‘drag’. The scene writing responsibilities fell on different people, usually one of the people in the scene. For example I created the script for ‘Taylor Time’; Jack created the script for the pub scene and Katie created the script for ‘Saturday Night’. Whilst the ‘Saturday Night’ scene was lyrics from ‘The Irony of it All’, Katie was responsible for artistically placing the lyrics into a form that resembled a scripted dialogue, and deciding who had what lines from the song and, if necessary, adding lines. Alice created a script, with the input of those in the scene, consisting of a rhyming ‘poem’ to stylise the scene. This process involved a lot of group trust that the scriptwriter would cover all the aspects, which the group would like the scene to cover. These expectations were often met, however if there was problems the group was able to work together to edit the script to meet the requirements. Scene Creation During the rehearsals, we split into several groups, and each had a drug to create scenes for. Each pair was asked to create several scenes each lesson. Once these aims had been met we met together and allowed the others to give their input. For each story we attempted to create a ‘positive’, ‘negative’ and a ‘turning point’. This process involved all of us separately, sometimes due to the crossover in the use of actors in different scenes those that weren’t in the scene often helped create scenes for the other groups. For example Katie helped to create scenes for Jack and Saimon, involving a news reporter and a cocaine-addicted rock star. These scenes formed the basis of the scenes involving ‘Jane Doe’ and ‘Gerald McMillan’ that were created at a later date. Direction When we completed the scenes each lesson we came back together and performed our scenes to the rest of the group. The group was able to give directorial points of view as to what would make the scene more effective – or to suggest ideas for scenes that may be based on the scene created that may be better for the final production. During the later stages of production, when many rehearsals were done as a complete group, those not involved in the scenes could watch and suggest improvements. This again resulted in a lot of trust, as we had to rely on the directors to shape the scene in a way that would portray our message.

Russian Financial Crisis in 1998 Essay Example for Free

Russian Financial Crisis in 1998 Essay These events led Russia’s international reserves to fall by $13. 5 billion and to the dissolution of the Kiriyenko government. One month later, Standard and Poor’s downgraded its rating of the Russian ruble to â€Å"CCC,† the lowest possible Standard and Poor’s rating, for its long-term outlook and â€Å"C† for short-term outlook. These events signaled the onset of the Russian financial crisis, which had its roots in the fundamental problems in the Russian economy but was triggered in part by the continuing financial crises in emerging markets in Asia and around the world. What were the causes of this crisis and near financial collapse? What are the so-called â€Å"experts† saying about the crisis and its spillover effects on other ENI countries? What are the possible courses of action that could minimize the adverse effects of the crisis and reduce the likelihood of future occurrences? The purpose of this paper is to summarize the divergent viewpoints expressed by leading scholars and practitioners in the field of international development and finance. By surveying the literature, it is apparent that the Russian crisis, and to some extent the Asian crisis that preceded it, was caused by a combination of internal structural problems in the domestic economy (especially in the banking and fiscal systems) and growing problems with the international financial system that permits excessively rapid outflows of capital. However, there is significant divergence of opinion among scholars and practitioners as to which set of factors, those related to the Russian economy or those related to the international financial system, are the cause of the crisis. In addition to the differences of opinion as to the causes of the crisis, disagreement exists as to the remedies to the crisis. As a result, each group has recommended its own set of policy prescriptions. The first section of this paper discusses the divergent opinions on the causes of the crisis. The second section highlights the economic, social, and political effects of the crisis. The third section provides a list of the proposed remedies offered by the divergent camps. The final section summarizes the main findings and includes a timeline of the Asian and Russian crises. Divergent Opinions: Causes of the Russian and Global Financial Crises The divergent views regarding the causes and cures of the Russian and Asian financial crises can be broken down into two camps: (1) those that believe that the crises derived primarily from problems in the international financial system and (2) those that place blame primarily on the structural problems within the countries themselves which left them vulnerable to capital flight and other problems arising from external financial instabilities. Members of the first group tend to be critical of the IMF and other international financial institutions, saying that these institutions played a role in creating and exacerbating the financial crises rather than helping to reduce the negative impact, although the â€Å"fix the system† critics do agree that each of the crisis countries did suffer from internal structural problems as well. The second group of analysts—the â€Å"fix the countries† group—believes that the international financial system and the approach of the IMF in assisting these countries are more or less working, and that the current crises derived from a lack of sufficient regulatory and fiscal reforms in Russia and Asia. â€Å"Fix the Global Financial System† Critics Jeffrey Sachs. According to Sachs, â€Å"the Treasury and the IMF have driven a large part of the developing world into recession†¦And the Brazil case makes absolutely clear that the first step is not to defend overvalued currencies. The punishing cost of this is overwhelmingly high. This is a lesson that the IMF and the Treasury have continued to ignore† (Uchitelle 1999). In his view, the IMF exacerbated the crisis by demanding tight fiscal and monetary policies. He claims that perceiving the crisis to be one of balance of payments, rather than a financial panic, the IMF chose an approach similar to the mistaken policies implemented by the United States in the early stages of the Great Depression of the 1930s (Radelet and Sachs 1999). Furthermore, Sachs insists that since high interest rates and austerity measures are bringing disaster to many emerging markets, interest rates should be kept down to encourage economic activity and allow exchange rates to find their own equilibrium level. He does not attribute the devaluation of exchange rates as a cause of the crisis in Russia, nor does he believe that a currency board arrangement would have saved the country. He states that â€Å"when pegged rates become overvalued, [this] forces countries to deplete their foreign exchange reserves, in a vain defense of the currency peg. † In his view, it was the combination of broken promises (i. e. , the ruble will not be devalued) and depleted reserves that left the country vulnerable to panic (Radelet and Sachs 1999). He believes that a growing economy is more likely to restore investor confidence than a recessionary one burdened by high interest rates (Uchitelle 1999). An additional contributing factor to the crisis, according to Sachs, was â€Å"moral hazard. Investors clearly had doubts about Russia’s medium-term stability, and talked openly about the risk of collapse and about the safety net that they expected the IMF and G-7 to provide to Russia. Knowing that these international lenders would rescue Russia and guarantee investments in the event of a financial meltdown in Russia, international investors tended to underestimate the r isks—and hence tended to over-invest in Russia. Russia was viewed as â€Å"too big to fail,† and this led to an inflow of capital that was larger than appropriate for the actual level of risk (Radelet and Sachs 1999). George Soros. As one of the world’s most successful international investors, an important philanthropist with millions of dollars invested in democracy projects throughout the ENI region, and a public intellectual who has proposed that sweeping changes be made to the international financial system, George Soros is a key figure in the Russian and Asian financial crises. His disparate roles often create a conflict, as Soros-the-intellectual appears to many an advocate of the regulation of international capital flows to prevent potential damages from speculations by people like himself (Frankel 1999). Soros was Russia’s biggest individual investor prior to the crisis in August 1998. He held a $1 billion stake in Svyazinvest, a telecommunications concern, and millions in stocks, bonds, and rubles. In mid-August 1998 Soros sprang into action to try to stop the crisis. He contacted the U. S. Treasury department, influential former members of Yeltsin’s administration, a nd published a letter in The Financial Times saying that the meltdown in Russian financial markets â€Å"had reached the terminal phase† (O’Brien 1998). In his letter, Soros called for immediate action—a devaluation of the ruble and institution of a currency board—that would have eliminated the Russian central bank’s discretion over monetary policy. Not realizing that a letter from Soros would be perceived as coming from Soros-the-investor instead of Soros-the-intellectual, his letter helped to prompt a panic in Russian markets, where investors believed Soros was shorting the ruble. Soros’ funds ultimately lost $2 billion in Russia as a result of the financial crisis there. According to his testimony to the Congressional Committee on Banking and Financial Services on 15 September 1998, Soros pointed out that â€Å"the Russia meltdown has revealed certain flaws in the international banking system which had previously been disregarded† (Soros 1998a). These flaws can be summarized as follows: (1) Banks engage in swaps, forward transactions, and derivative trades among each other— in addition to their exposure on their own balance sheets—but these additional transactions do not show up in the banks’ balance sheets. So when Russian banks defaulted on their obligations to western banks, the western banks continued to owe their own clients. As these transactions form a daisy chain with many intermediaries, and each intermediary has an obligation to his/her counterparty, no simple way could be found to offset the obligations of one bank against another. As a result, many hedge and speculative funds sustained large losses, and had to be liquidated. This systemic failure led most market participants to reduce their exposure to emerging markets all around, and this caused bank stocks to plummet and global credit market to enter a crunch phase. 2) As individual countries attempt to prevent the exodus of capital from their economy by raising interest rates and placing limits on foreign withdrawal of capital (as in Malaysia), this â€Å"beggar-thy-neighbor† policy tends to hurt the other countries that are trying to keep their capital markets open. (3) Another â€Å"major factor working for the d isintegration of the global capitalist system is the evident inability of the international monetary authorities to hold it together†¦ The response of the G7 governments to the Russian crisis was woefully inadequate, and the loss of control was kind of scary. Financial markets are rather peculiar in this respect: they resent any kind of government interference but they hold a belief deep down that if conditions get really rough the authorities will step in. This belief has now been shaken† (Soros 1998a). He also adds that â€Å"†¦financial markets are inherently unstable. The global capitalist system is based on the belief that financial markets, left to their own devices, tend toward equilibrium†¦This belief is false† (Soros 1998a). 3 His proposed cure is to reconsider the mission and methods of the IMF as well as replenish its capital base. Additionally, he’d like to see the establishment of an International Credit Insurance Corporation to help create sound banking systems, which would be subject to close supervision by the international credit agency, in developing countries (Soros 1998b). His last recommendation is to reconsider the functioning of debt-swap and derivative markets (Soros 1998b). Academia and Other Nongovernmental Organizations. Initially, Paul Krugman, an economist at MIT, argued that problems with the Asian economies, combined with corruption and moral hazard, led to wild over-investment and a boom-bust cycle. More recently, however, Krugman explains that such weaknesses cannot explain the depth and severity of the crisis, nor the fact that it occurred in so many countries simultaneously, and instead he places the blame on financial panic and overly liberalized international and domestic financial systems (Radelet and Sachs 1999). According to Krugman, â€Å"all short-term debt constitutes potential capital flight. † The need to fix structural problems in individual countries should not stand in the way of broader macroeconomic measures, in particular those designed to stimulate growth in hard times. He states that â€Å"it is hard to avoid concluding that sooner or later we will have to turn the clock at least part of the way back. To limit capital flows for countries that are unsuitable for either currency unions or free floating; to regulate financial markets to some extent; and to seek low, but not too low, inflation rather than price stability. We must heed the lessons of Depression economics, lest we be forced to relearn them the hard way† (Uchitelle 1999). In other words, the global financial system is largely to blame for the recent crises. Fix the Countries† Analysts IMF. According to the IMF, Russia’s financial crisis was brought on by a combination of (1) weak economic fundamentals, especially in the fiscal area; (2) unfavorable developments in the external environment, including contagion effects from the Asian financial crisis and falling prices for key export commodities such as oil; and (3) its â€Å"vulnerability to changes in market sentiment arising from the financing of balance of payments through short-term treasury bills and bonds placed on international markets† (IMF December 1998). The IMF had pointed out in May 1998 that Russia had made insufficient progress in improving budget procedures and tax systems, establishing competent agencies to collect taxes and control expenditures, clarifying intergovernmental fiscal relations, and ensuring transparency at all levels of government operations. By August 1998, investor confidence in the ability of Russian authorities to bring the fiscal system under control began to decline, immediately leading to the financial crisis, after the Duma failed to approve fiscal measures planned under the augmented Extended Fund Facility (EFF). These measures were aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit, implementing new structural reforms addressing the problem of arrears, promoting private sector development, and reducing the vulnerability of the government’s debt position, including a voluntary restructuring of treasury bills. 4 The extent to which the Russian crisis is attributable to contagion effects from the Asian crisis instead of to internal problems stemming from insufficient reforms in fiscal management is difficult to determine. According to the IMF’s May 1998 assessment of spillover effects from the Asian crisis, Russia’s stock market was seriously hit by the crisis and by early spring 1998, stock prices in Russia had indeed not yet fully recovered from the lows reached in fall 1997. The Russian ruble had also been hit hard and the central bank had to intervene heavily in the foreign exchange market just to keep the currency within the new exchange rate band. As international capital fled from the risky Asian economies in the fall and winter of 1997, investors who were similarly wary of risky investments in the transition economies began to reduce their exposure to Russian and other ENI markets. Nevertheless, emerging market investors quickly began to differentiate between high- and low-risk countries. By first quarter 1998 the Czech Republic and Poland had become relatively attractive to investors, receiving considerable short-term capital inflows and by January 1998 Standard and Poor’s credit rating for Hungary had greatly improved. Russia and Ukraine, on the other hand, continued to suffer from structurally weak financial sectors and an over-dependence on short-term borrowing. To attract investment back into Russia, the Russian government had to raise interest rates in order to offer yields well above pre-crisis levels to cover for the increased perception of risk. As a result, foreign investment had started to flow back into Russia by early 1998. According to the IMF, differences in the severity of interest rate and equity price movements among the transition countries illustrate the importance of appropriate domestic macroeconomic and structural policies to limit vulnerability to international financial crises. In Russia and Ukraine, financial sector weaknesses and a high dependence on government borrowing, in addition to chronic revenue problems, especially in Russia’s case, explain why these two countries were more affected by the Asian crisis than the Central and East European countries. In other words, the Asian crisis exposed Russia’s underlying structural problems and made the need to address them more apparent. The IMF continues to assert that the financial crisis in Russia was a crisis of the state. Nearly a year and a half ago, Michel Camdessus, Managing Director of the IMF, claimed that the Russian state â€Å"interferes in the economy where it shouldn’t; while where it should, it does nothing. Camdessus pointed out that the Russian state needs to make progress in promoting an efficient market economy through transparent and effective regulatory, legal, and tax systems. At present, the IMF still supports these recommendations (IMF November 1998). Existence of a Virtual Economy. Clifford Gaddy of the Brookings Institution and Barry Ickes of Penn State University argue that although the immediate causes of Russia’s financial crisis are the large budget deficit, resulting from nsufficient revenue collection, and an inability to service the debt, especially short-term dollar liabilities, there are more fundamental problems with Russia’s economy. These problems stem from â€Å"illusions† regarding prices, wages, taxes, and budgets that permeate the Russian economy to such a great extent that the economy has become â€Å"virtual† rather than actual. This virtual economy 5 is derived from a public pretense that the economy is bigger and output more valuable than they really are. According to Gaddy and Ickes, the virtual economy primarily originated from the unreformed industrial sector inherited from the Soviet era, in which enterprises produced output that was sold via barter at prices that were higher than they would be if sold for cash. In general, these enterprises operate without paying their bills, as wages that should be paid to employees (but are not paid) become wage arrears, and required payments for inputs (which are also not paid) emerge as interenterprise arrears and payments through barter. In fact, Gaddy and Ickes assert, people make an effort to avoid cash transactions because they would expose the pretense of the virtual economy. They go on to state that although the virtual economy acts as a safety net for Russian society, it has serious economic repercussions since it negatively affects enterprise restructuring, economic performance measuring, and public sector reform (Gaddy and Ickes 1998). At this point, they argue that the West has two choices on how to help Russia. First, the West can concentrate on keeping Russia stable in the short term by bailing out the virtual economy, which will lead to further consolidation of a backward, noncompetitive economy and will guarantee the need for future emergency bailouts. The second option would be to refuse the bailout. The consequences of this option would be drastic—the ruble will lose its value, foreign capital will flee—but on the positive side, the Russian economic policy that is so addicted to borrowing would have to kick the habit as it found its supply of international credit cut off. They state that â€Å"denying Russia a bailout is not without risks. But bailing out the virtual economy is sure to increase those risks for the future† (Gaddy and Ickes 1998). U. S. Government. The U. S. Treasury Department points out that despite the many important reforms that have been carried out in Russia—including extensive privatization, price liberalization, and reduction of government spending—reforms in a few critical sectors have lagged behind, leading to the financial crisis. According to David Lipton, the principal problems include the failure to control the budget deficit and extensive government borrowing. The budget problems are a manifestation of the political struggle over the country’s economic direction and as long as these disputes over the proper role of government remain unresolved, he believes that budget difficulties and unnecessary government borrowing will continue unabated. He also argues that Russia’s high fiscal deficits have led to the country’s high interest rates since â€Å"Russias macroeconomic problem is fundamentally fiscal; interest rates are more properly viewed as a symptom of that problem, not a cause† (Lipton 1998). Lastly, he argues that the failure to build a favorable investment climate and adhere to the rule of law also helped to sow the seeds of the financial crisis (Lipton 1998). The Treasury Department also points to external factors that led to the crisis. According to Deputy Secretary Lawrence Summers, the Russian crisis was not inevitable. He avers that if the Asian crisis had not reduced confidence among emerging markets investors, and had the prices of export commodities (e. g. , oil) not fallen so dramatically—the August 1998 crisis might not have taken place (Summers 1999). Nevertheless, the crisis did occur because the Russian government attempted to pursue an enormously risky course of simultaneously 6 devaluing the ruble, imposing a debt moratorium, and restructuring government bonds in response to the external pressures (Lipton 1998). To avoid future crises, Summers points out that Russia needs a tax system that supports the government and legitimizes enterprises, which probably involves a new allocation of spending and revenues between central and regional governments. Summers, however, is also quick to point out that it is much easier to talk about what tax reforms need to be implemented than to discuss how the reforms can be accepted politically. He adds that bank restructuring is another area where reform is needed and that it should be done in a fair nd transparent way within a legal framework that makes current owners take responsibility for their losses before scarce public funds are used (Summers 1999). Russian Government and Nongovernmental Analysts. Yegor Gaidar, former prime minister of Russia, attributes the crisis to the combined continuation of soft budget constraints from the socialist period along with the weakening of previous administrative controls and government corruption, which led to the ban kruptcy of state enterprises. The early years of transition in Russia were marred by inefficient macroeconomic policy, weak budgetary and monetary constraints, and inflation that eroded budget revenues. Although later macroeconomic policy was more efficient and succeeded in controlling inflation, efforts to improve revenue collection or cut expenditure obligations have failed, leading to unsustainable deficits. The lessons learned here are that budget deficits should be reduced as quickly as possible, as inflation is also controlled, and the vulnerability of exchange rate regimes to potential crises should be addressed immediately (IMF 1999; Gaidar 1999). In terms of the current regime, Gaidar describes Primakov and his government as a â€Å"communist government in post-communist Russia,† because Primakov and his cabinet come from the â€Å"traditional Soviet economics establishment† and his post-crisis approach relies on strengthening and centralizing government control. According to Gaidar, the Russian government faced two possible paths to solve the crisis: (1) return to the approach employed in 1992–94, with soft monetary and budget policies, or (2) maintain a tight monetary policy, stabilize the ruble, and carry out fundamental budget reforms to allow the government to balance revenues and expenditures. The first path would lead to the return of high inflation rates, as the government relaxed its control over the money supply in an attempt to pay its debts, but the banks would benefit from the return of â€Å"cheap money† issued by the Central Bank. The second path would involve speeding up structural reforms, which would be good news for profitable enterprises but would mean painful consequences for unproductive enterprises—mostly firms in the industrial and financial sectors—as they would be allowed to go bankrupt if they could not compete in world markets. Both paths would be painful, Gaidar explains, but the first path of high inflation would also be inequitable, as the poorest layer of society tends to suffer most from increasing prices. Not surprisingly, Primakov chose to pursue a modified version of the inflationary approach, a sort of populist economics policy that had been implemented in many Latin American countries. The reason Primakov opted for this path, as Gaidar states, is because â€Å"in part, the lack of internal and external sources for financing after the 7 dismissal of the Kiriyenko government pushed [the Primakov government] toward choosing the inflationary variant† (Institute for Economics in Transition 1999). Andrei Illarionov, Director of the Institute for Economic Analysis in Moscow, while noting the IMF’s successes with respect to Russia, criticized the IMF for being too willing to compromise on Russian conditionality. Not one of the IMF programs developed in Russia, Illarionov claims, has been executed in full, as a result of the softening and revision of conditions in original agreements. He states that â€Å"decisions to provide financing for Russia, motivated by political rather than economic considerations, have given rise to the problem of moral hazard. As a result, the Russian government became spoiled after being granted unearned financial assistance, and policy became even more irresponsible than before (Illarionov 1998). Finally, Illarionov also criticizes the IMF for offering inappropriate policy recommendations to Russian authorities in two other areas: exchange rate and fiscal policies. The IMF program (mid-1998, pre-crisis) stipulated that the exchange rate policy should remain unchanged for the remainder of 1998, in order to preserve the low inflation rates, and prescribed that the Russian government should concentrate mainly on raising revenue rather than reducing expenditures. Although many poor 9 O c t 9 8 J u l 9 8 A p r 9 8 egaw muminim laiciffo J a n 9 8 O c t 9 7 .9991/20 ,PECER :ecruoS J u l 9 7 A p r 9 7 J a n 9 7 Dissatisfaction over the continuing problem of wage arrears led to an increase in strikes throughout the country toward the latter part of 1998; 1873 strikes were registered in December 1998, nearly 3. 4 times the number during the previous December. aissuR ni ecnetsisbuS dna ,snoisneP ,segaW ecnetsisbus woleb era % 92 level ecnetsisbus laiciffo ecnetsisbus woleb era % 12 0 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 R u bl e s p e r m o n t h . eople have become poorer, the impoverishing effects of the crisis have also hit other groups within Russian society. Workers involved in the business of selling imported goods have found that demand for their products has nearly evaporated as not only consumer incomes have fallen, but also ruble depreciation means higher prices on imports. As a result, many of these trade businesses have shed labor or closed. One of the longer-term consequences of the economic crisis in Russia may be the strain on society, which is likely to weaken the Russian government’s ability to continue to push for reforms. In some ENI countries, the crisis has given reform skeptics an excuse to abandon or reverse some reforms already implemented. The social pressure against further economic reforms, now seen by many as the cause rather than the cure for the economic crises, may become strong enough to counter-balance the pro-reform force. It may lead some ENI countries to get stuck in what Adrian Karatnycky describes as a â€Å"state of stasis† rather than of transition. Stability Versus Democracy Politically, the financial collapse has weakened Russia vis-a-vis the west, but its relative power in the region has in many ways increased. Not only has the crisis given Moscow an excuse to consolidate power over the regions throughout Russia, but it has also allowed many hard-liners within Russia to gain some ground in their push to reassert Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. In addition, many neighboring regions have found themselves with large arrears on their payments to Russia for natural gas deliveries, and have had to strike deals with Russia to find ways to settle these debts through deliveries of food and other barter arrangements. Following the onset of the crisis in August, the Russian government proposed many changes intended to promote economic stability at the cost of democracy. In February 1999, Prime Minister Primakov argued that Russia’s governors should be appointed by the President, rather than elected by their constituents, so that Moscow can take back control over the regions and avoid a collapse of the country. President of Belarus Alyaksandr Lukashenko rejoiced in the crumbling of IMF-backed reforms in Russia, considering the crisis to be a indication of his position in favor of state planning and price controls. The old proposal regarding a possible political union of Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia has also resurfaced, as Russia and some neighboring countries have concluded that further integration will help solve their problems. In the words of Ivan Rybkin, President Yeltsin’s envoy to the CIS, â€Å"the recent crisis taught us all that we must stand together in order to surviveâ₠¬  (Rutland 1999). Effects on Neighboring Countries The drop in real wages in Russia—coupled with the devaluation of the ruble—has translated into dramatically reduced Russian imports. For the neighboring countries that depend on Russia as a market for their exports, the shrinking market in Russia has been disastrous for their local economies. As Russians are shifting consumption away from the relatively more expensive imported goods, the producers of these goods in neighboring countries are faced 10 with a dramatic fall in demand for their products. This has translated into falling output and increased unemployment for the countries that are most closely tied to Russia through trade, especially Moldova (more than 50 percent of Moldovan exports go to Russia); Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, (;gt;33 percent of exports to Russia, as of early 1998); and Georgia (;gt;30 percent of exports to Russia) (EC 1999). The drop in remittances from nationals living in Russia has led to decreased incomes in neighboring countries with large numbers of gastarbeiter working in Russia. Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan have been most severely hit by this decline in remittances. In some cases the pattern seems to have been reversed, with families in neighboring countries now supporting relatives living in Russia (EC 1999). Finally, food prices have also increased in the neighboring countries of the NIS, as the cost of imports from outside Russia has risen as a consequence of the significant devaluation of local currencies. Some of the specific effects and impacts on other NIS and neighboring countries are summarized briefly below. Armenia—Accumulation of public sector arrears is likely, as government is facing difficulties in financing of education, health care, and other expenditures. Remittances from Armenians in Russia have decreased, placing additional pressure on family support systems, and this could result in increased poverty. Azerbaijan—Trade-related consequences in the short term are less than for other NIS countries, as the political instability in the North Caucasus region has already limited trade ties with Russia prior to the crisis. Government spending was cut in 1998, and further cuts in 1999 will affect key social sectors. As in other Caucasus countries, decreased remittances from Azerbaijani nationals residing in Russia has reduced family incomes in Azerbaijan. Baltic Region—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—The Russian crisis forced some Baltic banks to fail, and several others to reveal their under-reporting of exposure to Russia in their September 1998 quarterly reports. Better developed financial systems, a reorientation toward western markets, and general political stability have helped to limit the damage and contagion effects from the Russian crisis. Belarus—One of the most affected countries in the NIS, Belarus was highly dependent on trade with Russia prior to the crisis. Exports to Russia plunged from $400 million/month in the first half of 1998 to just $170 million/month by September 1998. Shortages of basic foods forced the government to introduce rationing. Georgia—The Russian market accounted for 30 percent of Georgia’s exports prior to the crisis, and Georgian nationals living in Russia provided a significant amount of income to Georgian families through remittances. The trade deficit with Russia widened to 50 percent in October 1998, forcing the Georgian authorities to float the lari (which led to a sharp depreciation). 11 Kazakhstan—In the first half of 1998, half of Kazakhstan’s exports went to Russia, and the impact of the crisis has been felt in Kazakhstan primarily through the reduction of exports to Russia. Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on the import of some Russian foodstuffs, in order to control the inflow of cheapened Russian goods following the depreciation of the ruble. Kyrgyzstan—Nearly 60 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s exports went to Russia, prior to the crisis, so this country was also one of the more vulnerable to negative shocks through the trade mechanism. In this most pro-reform of the Central Asian Republics, price liberalization of utilities and privatization may be threatened, as consumers are less able to pay the higher tariffs as a esult of fallen incomes. Moldova—Trade with Russia is important to Moldova, as 50 percent of Moldovan exports went to Russia prior to the crisis. Many farms and other agro-exporters have been unable to pay wages, as their export market has dried up in Russia. Here, too, the crisis has threatened the reform and liberalization process implemented by the government, as investors’ interest in the Moldovan economy has diminished and a heavy withdrawal from commercial banks have signaled a lack of confidence in this country. Tajikistan—Low commodity prices for cotton and gold had already damaged the Tajikistan economy before the Russian crisis, and the fragile peace held together in part with the support of the Russian military (serving as border guards) has certainly not gained strength from the crisis. Apparently, Tajikistan is not as dependent on trade with Russia as other NIS countries, and this has helped to insulate Tajikistan from the direct effects of the crisis. Turkmenistan—Exposure of Turkmen banks to Russian markets has been limited, as the Turkmenistan economy is tightly controlled by the state. The Russian crisis therefore is not expected to have a strong direct impact on Turkmenistan. Ukraine—Closely linked to Russia through trade and financial ties, Ukraine has suffered greatly as a result of the Russian crisis. The hryvnia lost half its value against the dollar following the crisis, and reserves have fallen (as of early 1999) to only one month of imports. Inflation surged to 12. 8 percent in October 1998 alone, following a long period of relatively stable inflation before the onset of the crisis (2 percent inflation in first half of 1998). Uzbekistan—As Uzbekistan has been gradually reorienting its international trade profile away from Russia over recent years, the country has apparently been less affected by the crisis than other NIS countries. Further, the underdeveloped banking system and financial markets in Uzbekistan may have helped to insulate that country from the shocks emanating from Russia in August 1998, as Uzbekistan had relatively little exposure to Russia’s financial markets. 2 Proposed Remedies As discussed throughout this paper, two camps have emerged in academic and policy circles that seek to explain the causes of and remedies for the Russian financial crisis. This section highlights some of the remedies proposed by each camp. According to the â€Å"fix the countries† critics, such as the IMF and the U. S. Treasury Department, the Russian government must continue pushing for reforms in the public finance and banking sectors. According to Gaddy and Ickes, only two options exist for western creditors and international financial institutions: keep Russia stable in the short-term by bailing out the virtual economy or refusing a bailout. Denying Russia a bailout would have negative effects in the short-term by leading to the demise of large commercial banks and oligarchs, foreign capital flight, and currency devaluation. In the long run, however, Gaddy and Ickes prefer this option because they believe it will force Russia to adjust to economic life without a steady supply of credit available and adapt sound economic policies. They dislike the first option simply because they believe it will lead to the further development of a nonmarket-oriented economy that would require bailouts in the future. The Treasury Department adds that bank restructuring and reforms in tax administration and collection are necessary as well. The â€Å"fix the global financial system† critics, such as Jeff Sachs and George Soros, urge that the international financial system be reformed so that short-term borrowing by banks and governments be limited so as to avoid potential investor panics. In addition, Sachs recommends that domestic banking regulations, in the form of enhanced capital adequacy standards and policies that encourage partial bank-sector ownership by foreign capital, be implemented in order to limit vulnerability of the domestic economy to foreign creditor panics, and that exchange rates be kept flexible instead of pegged. In addition to these proposed remedies, others have gone further to propose mechanisms for recovering losses (Sexton 1998). According to Sexton, foreign creditors have at their disposal four mechanisms to recover losses to Russian firms: 1. Convertible debt securities: debtors could issue convertible bonds to creditors although Sexton argues that this probably won’t work too well in Russia 2. Treasury or redeemed shares: company may exchange its own shares, that were bought back, or interests to extinguish outstanding indebtedness; there should be no tax consequences to debtor on repurchase of shares; on resale to foreign creditor, debtor should be taxed on any gain on shares or should be able to deduct any loss sustained 3. Alternative debt refinancing structure: swapping debt for convertible debt which creditor converts into equity; issue by debtor to creditor of convertible bonds as a means of refinancing outstanding debt; creditor should make sure conversion ratio covers value of outstanding debt over term of loan; disadvantage to this 13 strategy is that creditor is refinancing and likely to have twice the outstanding debt for some time 4. Securitizing the debt: convert debt into security which creditor then contributes to debtor’s charter capital to pay for the shares (key issue facing creditors thinking of taking equity in a Russian debtor company in exchange for indebtedness is how to value that equity) Summary This paper has addressed the opposing views as to the causes of and remedies for the Russian financial crisis. †¢ Two central camps have emerged. One camp argues that the Russian economy has severe structural problems that were the primary cause of the crisis: fiscal deficit, banking sector problems. The other group points to the IMF and the problems with the international financial system, claiming that moral hazard problems led investors to underestimate the risk of investing in emerging markets such as Russia, and that unregulated short-term investment flows out of emerging markets can result from the panic. Each of these groups proposes different remedies for the crisis, based on their assessment of the roots of the crisis. The IMF and Treasury Department insist that the Russian government continue to push for reforms in public finance and the banking sector, claiming that weaknesses in these areas ultimately led to the onset of the Russian crisis. Jeffrey Sachs, George Soros, and others who are critical of the international financial systems and the role of the IMF in the recent financial crises, recommend that the short-term borrowing by governments and banks in emerging markets be limited and regulated, and that exchange rates are flexible rather than pegged. †¢ Although the worst of the Russian crisis may have already passed, as the Russian and other ENI stock markets appear to have recovered and the dramatic fall in production has been reversed, the original causes of the crisis still need to be addressed. Continued progress in banking and fiscal reforms in Russia will be necessary to ensure that the country is less vulnerable to future external shocks and foreign creditor panics. Improvements in these sectors would help restore investor confidence in the Russian economy and reverse the current outflow of capital. 14 ANNEX: What Happened in Russia? A Brief Chronology of Events Asian Crisis: Precursor to the Russian Crisis †¢ †¢ July 1997, Thailand—devaluation of Thai baht December 1997, Korea—devaluation of Korean won †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ ate October 1997— Pressure on ruble intensifies, as result of Asian crisis December 1997—Foreign exchange pressure temporarily recedes in Russia 19 December 1997—Standard and Poor’s Sovereign Ratings of Russian ruble: longterm—â€Å"BB-â€Å"; outlook—negative; short-term—â€Å"B† January 1998—Reemerging p ressure on ruble forces Central Bank to raise interest rates, increase reserve requirements on foreign exchange deposits, and intervene on ruble and treasury bill market March 1998—Stock market prices in Russia have not yet recovered from lows reached in late fall 1997 May 1998—Russia places major commercial bank under Central Bank administration; miners strike over wage arrears; Russia continues to intervene on foreign exchange markets to support ruble, but investors increasingly see this strategy as unsustainable Late May 1998—Interest rates in Russia increased to 150 percent; Russian government announces revisions to 1998 budget, including 20 percent cut in expenditures and new initiatives to boost revenues Early June 1998—Recent policy announcements temporarily ease tensions, allow partial reversal of earlier interest rate hikes 9 June 1998—Standard and Poor’s Sovereign Ratings of Russian ruble: long-term— â€Å"B+â€Å"; outloo k—stable; short-term—â€Å"B† Late June 1998—Russian authorities unveil anti-crisis program, aimed at boosting tax revenues, cutting expenditures, and speeding up structural reforms . 9991 lirp A , eci vre S et aR egn ahc xE CIFI C AP : ecruo S 15 4 / 2 / 9 9 3 / 2 / 9 9 2 / 2 / 9 9 1 / 2 / 9 9 1 2 / 2 / 9 8 1 1 / 2 / 9 8 1 0 / 2 / 9 8 9 / 2 / 9 8 8 / 2 / 9 8 7 / 2 / 9 8 6 / 2 / 9 8 5 / 2 / 9 8 4 / 2 / 9 8 3 / 2 / 9 8 2 / 2 / 9 8 1 / 2 / 9 8 03 Russian Crisis Timeline 0 5 01 51 02 52 After the devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997, one Asian country after another had to raise interest rates sharply to avoid currency devaluation. But the combination of high interest rates and currency depreciation, which inflated the burden of foreign debt, provoked a financial crisis (Krugman 1999). SU$/selbuR :etaR egnahcxE elbuR †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ 16 1 2 / 2 0 / 9 8 9 / 2 0 / 9 8 6 / 2 0 / 9 8 3 / 2 0 / 9 8 1 2 / 2 0 / 9 7 9 / 2 0 / 9 7 6 / 2 0 / 9 7 3 / 2 0 / 9 7 1 2 / 2 0 / 9 6 .9991 lirpA ,semiT wocsoM :ecruoS 9 / 2 0 / 9 6 6 / 2 0 / 9 6 3 / 2 0 / 9 6 1 2 / 2 0 / 9 5 9 / 2 0 / 9 5 6 / 2 0 / 9 5 3 / 2 0 / 9 5 1 2 / 2 0 / 9 4 9 / 2 0 / 9 4 6 / 2 0 / 9 4 0 †¢ 003 †¢ xednI semiT wocsoM :egnahcxE kcotS naissuR †¢ Mid-July 1998—Russian authorities introduce additional policy package, in the context of an IMF agreement on an augmented Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement 20 July 1998—IMF releases first $4. 8 billion tranche of $22. billion extra credit pledge, as policy package is approved by IMF Late July 1998—Initial effects of this package are positive, with equity prices rebounding 30 percent, treasury bill rates falling from 100 to 50 percent, and a low ering of the Central Bank refinancing rate from 80 to 60 percent Early August 1998—The Duma fails to approve new reform program; President forced to veto several Duma measures and introduce others by decree 13 August 1998—Standard and Poor’s Sovereign Ratings of Russian ruble: longterm—â€Å"B-â€Å"; outlook—negative; short-term—â€Å"C† 14 August 1998—Average treasury bill rates are about 300 percent, international reserves down to only $15 billion, and Russian banks are unable to meet payment obligations Russia on the verge of full-scale banking and currency crisis 15 August 1998—Boris Yeltsin announces that there will be no devaluation of the ruble 17 August 1998—Russian government defaults on GKO Treasury Bonds, imposes 90day moratorium on foreign debt payments, abandons ruble exchange rate corridor 17 August 1998—Standard and Poor’s Sovereign Ratings of Russian ruble downgraded: long-term—â€Å"CCC†; outlook—negative; short-term—â€Å"C† 21 August 1998—Russia’s international reserves fall to $13. 5 billion, after renewed heavy intervention in an effort to support the weakened ruble 26 August 1998—Following heavy intervention, the Russian Central Bank announces that it will stop selling U. S. ollars, and suspends trading of ruble on main exchanges Late August 1998—Kiriyenko government is dissolved, financial crisis intensifies 1 September 1998—Russia is the IMF’s largest borrowe r, with a combined total of credits at this date equal to nearly $18. 8 billion 2 September 1998—Russian Central Bank abandons exchange rate band, lets the ruble float 16 September 1998—Standard and Poor’s Sovereign Ratings of Russian ruble: longterm—â€Å"CCC-† [lowest possible S and P rating]; outlook—negative; short-term—â€Å"C† January 1999—Moody’s assesses financial strength (â€Å"E†) and credit ratings (â€Å"Ca†) of the Russian banks at the lowest possible levels; most banks are insolvent (or nearly so) 005 054 004 053 052 002 051 001 05 †¢ †¢ †¢ 15 January 1999—The Central Bank of Russia re-launches trading on the domestic debt market. The new securities are to be used in the restructuring of frozen GKO and other debt instruments 27 January 1999—Standard and Poor’s Sovereign Ratings of Russian ruble: Longterm—â€Å"Selective Default†; outlook—â€Å"Not Meaningful†; short-term—â€Å"Selective Default† 5 February 1999—The 1999 budget was passed by the Duma in its fourth and final reading. The budget estimates a 2. 5 percent budget deficit, and assumes that the government will receive $7 billion in external loans to help finance foreign debt service 17 BIBLIOGRAPHY European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). March 1999. â€Å"Overview on Developments in the Operating Environment,† mimeo. European Commission (EC). 20 January 1998. â€Å"The Russian Crisis and Its Impact on the New Independent States and Mongolia. † Communication of the European Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. [http://europa. eu. int/comm/dg1 a/nis/russian_crisis_impact/1. htm] Frankel, Jeffrey A. 1999. Soros’ Split Personality: Scanty Proposals from the Financial Wizard. † Foreign Affairs 78 (2): 124-130. Gaddy, Clifford G. , and Barry W. Ickes. 1998. â€Å"Russia’s Virtual Economy. † Foreign Affairs 77 (5): 53-67. Gaidar, Yegor. February 1999. â€Å"Lessons of the Russian Crisis for Transition Economies. † Institute for Economies in Transition on-line publication. Illarionov, Andrei. 1998. â€Å"Russia and the IMF,† testimony prepared for hearing of the General Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee of the Banking and Financial Services Committee of the U. S. House of Representatives, 10 September. International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1999. IMF Survey. Volume 28, Number 4. International Monetary Fund. May 1998 and December 1998. World Economic Outlook. International Research and Exchange Board (IREX). 1998. â€Å"Russia’s Economic Crisis and Its Effect on the New Independent States,† a discussion report summarizing conclusions of an IREX policy forum held on 18 November. â€Å"Kommunisticheskie pravitel’stvo v postkommunisticheskoi Rossii: pervye itogi i vozmozhnye perspektivy [Communist Government in Post-Communist Russia: Initial Results and Possible Perspectives]. † 1999. Working Paper Series. Moscow: Institut ekonomiki perekhodnogo perioda [Institute for Economies in Transition]. Krugman, Paul. 1999. â€Å"The Return of Depression Economics. Foreign Affairs 78 (1): 5674. Lipton, David. 1998. â€Å"Treasury Undersecretary David Lipton Testimony Before the House Banking General Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee on Russia,† RR-2673, 10 September. Odling-Smee, John. 1998. â€Å"The IMF Responds on Russia: A Letter to the Editor,† 30 November. 18 O’Brien, Timothy. 1998. â€Å"George Soros Has Seen the Enemy. It Looks Like Him. † The New York Times, 6 December: . Phillips, Michael M. 1999. â€Å"Apocalypse? No. Round the Globe, Signs Point to Final Days of Financial Crisis. † The Wall Street Journal, 14 April: . Radelet, Steven, and Jeffrey Sachs. 1999. â€Å"What Have We Learned, So Far, From the Asian Financial Crisis? Paper sponsored by USAID/G/EGAD under Consulting Assistance on Economic Reform (CAER) II Project. Robinson, Anthony. 1999. â€Å"Russia: Coming in from the Cold. † The Banker 149 (877): 4849. Russian European Centre for Economic Policy (RECEP). 1999. â€Å"Russian Economic Trends. † Monthly Update, 10 February. Russian Market Research Company (RMRC). 1998. â€Å"Business Barometer Survey: Moscow, October 2-3, 1998,† published on the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia website. Rutland, Peter. 1999. â€Å"Moscow Casts a Long Shadow. † Transitions 6 (3): 27-31. Sexton, Robert. 1999. â€Å"Turning Russian Debt into Equity. † Euromoney no. 357: 75-76. Smirnov, Mikhail. 1998. Rubl’ kaput ili kak bank Rossii opustil rubl’ [The Ruble is Kaput, or, How the Bank of Russia Lost the Ruble],† National’naia sluzhba novostei [National News Service]. Soros, George. 1998a. Testimony to the Congressional Committee on Banking and Financial Services of the U. S. House of Representatives, 15 September. Soros, George. 1998b. â€Å"The Crisis of Global Capitalism: Open Society Endangered,† remarks before the Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 10 December. Summers, Lawrence H. 1999. â€Å"Russian and the United States: The Economic Agenda,† remarks by Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers at the U. S. -Russian Investment Symposium in Cambridge, MA, 14 January. Uchitelle, Louis. 1999. â€Å"Crash Course: Just What’s Driving the Crisis in Emerging Markets? † The New York Times, 29 January: . 19